Confidence has ranged from high to shaky over the outlook for the 2013 grape export season in Peru, despite projections of growth in the sector over 2012 volumes.

The weather may be partly to blame.

"Temperatures were too high in 2012," says Daniel Salinas, agronomist at Consorcio Agroexportador del Perú S.A.C., a twenty-five member consortium of exporters in Peru.

"Humidity and an abundance of dew meant lower production. Some farms barely produced anything in Piura," he notes.

However, the reverse has been the case this year for weather in the northern region, which is the second largest grape-producing area outside Ica.

"The weather was actually very cold. In July, the temperatures reached 15°C (59°F). In previous years, it never dropped below 17°C (62.6°F) or 18°C (64.4°F)."

Verfut export manager Ignacio Donoso agrees that weather has been colder in Peru's grape-growing regions this year.

"Any fruit that is going to flourish will probably start to produce in the first week of October," he says.

Salinas says cold weather has also meant some orchards in the region have had to face the prospect of odium attacks; fungal spores that leave a thin, white mildew on grape vines, often having deleterious effects on plant formation, attacking the vines, yellowing the leaves, and causing plants to wilt.

Odium usually shows up in colder, drier environments - a good description of the production season this year in Piura.

"There has certainly been less rain this season," Salinas adds.

Growth expectations and new markets

The Peruvian Foreign Trade Society (COMEX PERU) expects a 20% uptick in table grape exports this year to US$400 million. As of July 2013, US $130 million were exported, representing year-on-year growth of 10%.

A report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) notes that planting new vineyards in the country's growing regions remains costly, both prices and good returns on investments have growers expanding. According to the report, an estimated 305,000 metric tons (MT) will be grown this year, 150,000MT of which are bound for international markets.

Though the weather has been colder than previously expected, exporters haven’t felt the pinch, with strong demand in markets around the world. The biggest buyers of Peruvian grapes are the Netherlands, Hong Kong and the U.S.

"The season has gone well so far. Although due to colder weather, some harvests may produce later than in previous years, we haven't seen any major climatic problems thus far," a source close to www.freshfruitportal.com says.

"The Far East is becoming a market with high demand, and year on year the Peruvian grape offering is gaining more prestige. With respect to taste and consistency, Far East markets have indicated that the Peruvian grape has consistently improved over the last few seasons," the exporter says.

"However, the main threat remains the U.S, the major international competition with regards to the production of the Red Globe variety, which we principally deal with, and which makes up the vast majority of Peruvian grapes shipped overseas."

The source says Peru also faces a tough challenge for its Red Globes when competing with growers in the U.S. and elsewhere.

"Red Globe is the variety we deal with the most, and considering that it makes up the vast majority of Peruvian grapes shipped overseas, this is an obvious challenge.

"We are also competing with Europe. We're aiming toward the markets with the best prices, given the high demand and low early-season output of the Peruvian grape. Last year, in fact, we started with exports to the Middle East."

The standard preferences of Chinese consumers are another factor affecting the decisions of Peruvian exporters.

"They expect a certain cherry red color. Our exporters don’t go there because the demands of the Chinese market are too high," says Salinas.

Salinas also highlights room for expansion in Korea, which received 3% of Peru's grape exports in 2012.

"There are less restrictions placed on exporters into Korea," he says.

Overall, the industry is cautiously optimistic. Despite the relatively minor adversities this season, producers and exporters can count on the next few months to fill a gap in the international grape supply, as U.S. and European producers are cut off by the coming winter.

"Central America offers a few opportunities in September," Salinas emphasizes, adding that for many exporters China is an attractive market in November and December.

"So there are some promising windows opening up at the end of this year."

www.freshfruitportal.com