While apple and pear production is set to be down this season club variety volumes are forecast to rise 14%, according to a World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) released today at Prognosfruit in Hamburg.

In a release, WAPA said 2016 apple production would be down 3% year-on-year at just above 12 million metric tons (MT), which is actually up 1% on the three-year average.

The forecast varies depending on variety, with decreases expected for Golden Delicious (-7%), Gala (-4%), Idared (-6%) and Red Delicious (-2%).

In contrast, new variety cultivation is projected to jump 14% to 530,000MT, representing about 4.4% of supply.

WAPA raised concerns about intense frosts that affected central Europe, in particular Slovenia, Austria, and parts of Croatia and Hungary.

However, Poland - Europe's leading apple grower - is one of the few countries set for a reasonable production increase, in the realm of an extra 171,000MT on last year's figure.

Meanwhile, larger crops are expected from some other Northern Hemisphere countries including Canada (+24%), Turkey (+16%), the U.S. (+12%) and Russia (+2%), while volumes will be down in Mexico (-16%) and Switzerland (-5%).

The total pear crop is due to drop 9% to reach 2.17 million MT, with falls for varieties including Conference (-5%), Abate Fetel (-13%) and Williams BC (-11%).

Elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere crops have either increased compared to last year, as in China (+6%), Turkey (+5%) and the Ukraine (+2%), whereas it decreased in the USA (-3%) and Switzerland (-16%) and Belarus (-1%).

"A new season is starting, which will still confront the sector with challenges, domestically and internationally," said WAPA president Daniel Sauvaitre.

"The quality of the crop and the better balance between supply and demand, will hopefully lead to better returns to growers.

"For apples, the situation looks slightly better, particularly for the fresh market outlook. Regarding pears, the crop is on the lower end, which might mean less pressure on the market after a difficult season."

WAPA said the figures left room for "careful optimism" for the coming season, with a more balanced situation between supply and demand.

"There will be no overhanging stocks from the previous season, a better balance between fresh and processed output and limited pressure from the Southern Hemisphere," the group said.

"Consequently, the season will start with less pressure than last year.

"In addition, there has been some positive development in the exports to new markets during the last years, but the effects of the Russian embargo will still be felt by the growers."

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