2026 California almond forecast to remain steady at 2.7 billion pounds

The California almond crop is projected to remain steady during the 2026 season, with a total volume of 2.7 billion pounds, down one percent from the previous year. Yield is forecasted to remain steady at 1,940 pounds per acre, unchanged from 2025.

The 2026 season forecast published by the US Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA-NASS) was made based on subjective grower data compiled between April 24 and May 7 from around 500 participants selected at random.  

Image courtesy of California Almonds.

"This is an early estimate, and we will see how the crop progresses over the coming months," said Almond Board of California (ABC) President and CEO Clarice Turner.

In a press release published by ABC, the executive emphasized that even with a slightly tighter supply, the Golden State remains the world’s leading supplier of the fruit, a status California growers will defend despite higher costs, regulatory pressures, and supply chain challenges.

Only one California almond crop report this year

In December 2025, the ABC voted to cease funding for the USDA-NASS Objective Measurement Report, leading to the implementation of a subjective survey to provide the California industry with the data to make informed decisions.

This Subjective Forecast comes two weeks after Land IQ’s 2026 Standing Acreage Initial Estimate, which found that bearing acreage in California decreased one percent by 15,227 acres from the previous year to 1,385,870 million bearing acres. 

The Australian season starts at a low pace 

Image courtesy of Australian Almonds.

Meanwhile, in the Southern Hemisphere, Australian producers are facing a slow start to the season, with exports delayed and down 28 percent year over year.  

Severe rainfall in the middle of harvest has challenged the fruit's drying process, and is "likely to limit the inshell potential of the 2026 crop," says a report by industry body Australian Almonds. 

Up until now, the weather has not changed the season's volume estimates, which were set at 166,892 tonnes. 

*The main image is referential. 

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