South African pome fruit export estimate drops amid ongoing drought

The ongoing drought in South Africa has led to a downward revision in total apple and pear exports expected for the 2017 season, according to industry body Hortgro. 

An estimate at the start of the year anticipated 3% growth in apple exports and a 2% rise in pear exports, mainly due to new orchards coming into production.

However, as the harvesting season progressed the industry realized the anticipated volumes were not going to materialize, given fruit size in general and pack-out of fruit as trees were affected by a combination of drought and high temperatures.

The newly calculated volumes indicate a year-on-year drop of 9% for apples and 6% for pears.

A decrease in export volumes of Golden Delicious (-11%), Granny Smith (-20%), Pink Lady (-29%) and Fuji (-16%) can directly be attributed to weather conditions impacting on color development, fruit size and pack-outs, Hortgro said.

Pear export volumes are also down on initial projections. The decrease in export volumes of Williams Bon Chretien (-5%) is due to smaller fruit size, good demand from the canning industry and a lack in demand from the Northern Hemisphere importing countries.

Packhams Triumph (-4%), Abate Fetel (-14%) and Vermont Beauty (-19%) are also down compared to last year. On the contrary, export volumes of Forelle are in line with the previous season.

Speaking to Fresh Fruit Portal, Hortgro general manager for trade and markets Jacques du Preez said the industry had been hopeful of achieving the initial export forecasts despite the challenging conditions.

"We were hoping that the packouts would be acceptable, but as soon as they started packing the fruit and putting it into cold storage we realized that in general the volume is smaller," he said.

"Every year we do a bin count from around May, and in June from the amount of fruit in cold storage added to what we’ve shipped already, we knew we were not going to make the original estimates."

He said the weather in May had been hot and dry, and while June had been slightly better it was still behind other years on cold units and rainfall.

"We are positive and hope for the best, but we might run into trouble now if it doesn’t start raining soon and a lot," he said.

"So the guys are concerned. The ongoing drought will have a negative knock-on effect on next year’s crop. The degree just has yet to be determined, but the trees have taken stress."

Authorities in the Western Cape recently declared the province a disaster area, which Du Preez said would allow them to fast-track or divert funding towards water infrastructure plans they had in place for the next five or 10 years, to bore holes or to add other water sources. But he said there was no real short-term solution.

Declines in Europe, growth in Asia

Currently there are about 10-12% of pear exports still to go, and about 30-35% of apple exports.

South African pome fruit shippers last month reported there had been a tough global market situation in general for the first half of the season. While Du Preez said the European market remained difficult, it seemed as though the situation in Africa was gradually improving.

The Far East is the industry's leading export market so far this season, having received about a third of exports. Volumes shipped to the market are currently about 10% higher year-on-year, Du Preez said.

"We’ve seen a decline in the U.K. and Europe and the only ones that really saw an increase is Russia and the Far East and Asia, at this stage," he said.

"Africa normally takes fruit up to December of this year, so it will still add up, but compared this time last year those are the figures."

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