For Britain’s supermarket groups Christmas 2020 will be like no other, with the challenge of unprecedented demand due to the COVID-19 crisis followed by the risk of disruption to supplies at the end of the Brexit transition period on Dec. 31.

Queues are already forming outside UK supermarkets at peak times and shoppers should expect them to lengthen in the run-up to Christmas as the big four players - market leader Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Asda and Morrisons - and their smaller rivals wrestle with meeting a jump in demand whilst adhering to social distancing requirements.

Then, from January, shoppers face the prospect of gaps on shelves if supply lines from the European Union are disrupted.

Market researcher Nielsen forecasts UK shoppers will spend 2 billion pounds more in supermarkets in the quarter to Dec. 26 than in the same period last year, or a total of 33 billion pounds. Some analysts believe that could prove a conservative estimate.

While a forecast increase in demand is not unique to Britain - in the U.S., for example, researcher IRI expects a near one fifth jump in quarterly food and beverage spending - the added dimension of Brexit adds to the operational difficulties UK supermarket groups are facing.

Last week, Tesco said it would pay back to government 585 million pounds of COVID-19 business rates relief, which prompted rivals to do the same.

Murphy said the decision to return the relief was “completely disconnected” to its plans to pay a special dividend.

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