Prognosfruit 2025: EU Apple and pear production holds steady amid market uncertainty

Hosted by the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA), Prognosfruit 2025 took place today in Angers, France. During the event, and as is tradition, the local industry seized the opportunity to release its yearly apple and pear 2025/2026 forecast. 

As per WAPA’s report, EU apple production will be holding steady in 2025, with a minimum variation of 0.1 percent, reaching a volume of 10.5 million tons. This, they clarified, falls in line with yearly trends, but is still below the 3- and 5-year average. 

When it comes to varieties, WAPA said Golden Delicious, a European fan favorite, is still going strong and expected to experience only a minor volume decrease of 0.9 percent (2.06 million tons). The forecast stabilizes Gala at 1.43 million tons, but holds bad news for Red Delicious and Idared, which are expected to suffer significant drops of 19.2 percent and 8.8 percent, respectively. 

Where pears are concerned, EU production will grow 1.4 percent year-on-year to 1.79 million tons. But the forecast is not as sweet as it sounds, as total volume is still expected to fall 2.5 percent below the 3-year average. 

The report predicts a lot more volatility looking at producing countries: Italy’s pear output is expected to fall again, with a dramatic nearly 25 percent drop. Fortunately, Belgium and the Netherlands are coming to save the day to offset Italy’s production deficit. Brussels is expected to experience a whopping increase of 32 percent, while the Dutch will grow a little over 8 percent.

Pear varieties will also experience significant changes. The report forecasts a 15.6 percent growth (857,368 tons) for Conference pears, while William BC production will shrink by almost 17 percent. 

As to reasons behind the changes in apple and pear production this year, WAPA cites a number of factors. They include ongoing challenges in yield consistency resulting from climate change, the limited toolbox the industry currently has to manage biosecurity threats, the transition towards better but less productive varieties, as well as the shift to organic. 

A call for stability

This year’s steady EU crop suggests a promising outlook, as experts expect its size will amply cover local demand, trade between EU countries, and processing and export opportunities.

But not everything is as sweet as apples. In its report, WAPA warned of potential shifts in global market dynamics across the Middle East, Central Asia, India, and Southeast Asia, as the U.S. and India are forecasting slightly higher crops, while production in China and EU neighbourhood regions, including Turkey, Serbia, Moldova, and Ukraine, is expected to drop.

“Despite a steady production forecast, the sector faces worrying uncertainties,” said Philippe Binard, Secretary General of WAPA. 

In addition to climate change and factors such as labor shortages and rising costs, the WAPA representative cited political concerns, including geopolitical instability, a volatile trade environment, and currency fluctuations, as conditions currently clouding long-term visibility. 

“A stronger European Union with a robust Single Market based on common rules is essential, especially as political trends move towards greater subsidiarity—which risks undermining competitiveness and distorting competition between EU growers,” he said. 

As the EU continues to shape the future of its Common Agricultural Policy, says the Prognosfruit press release, apple and pear growers are increasingly concerned about proposed budget cuts for the upcoming EU Multi-Financial Framework 2028-2034 and the decentralisation of core responsibilities towards more subsidiarity granted to Member States, dismantling the basic principles of a common agricultural policy. These shifts could hinder European apple and pear growers' ability to tackle shared challenges efficiently. 

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