US farmers are pessimistic about their future, survey shows

US farmer sentiment is not good, and the sector is not optimistic about the future, as indicated by the latest Ag Economy Barometer survey from Purdue University and the CME Group. Sentiment among farmers declined again in August, with a 10-point drop that left the index at 125. The shift was driven primarily by a sharp decline in producers’ outlook on future conditions, indicated by an Index of Future Expectations of 123—its lowest since September 2024.

While the overall sentiment weakened, producers' assessment of current conditions remained relatively stable, and only shifted 2 points compared to July.

The August 2025 survey, conducted during the first half of the month, found notable differences in outlook between crop and livestock producers. According to the survey, the former expressed significantly less optimism than the latter, reflecting a disparity in profitability between the two sectors. 

The report noted that beef cattle operations are benefiting from record-high prices, driven by the smallest US cattle inventory since 1951. In contrast, crop producers are facing financial pressure due to commodity prices reaching below break-even levels.

Farmers’ expectations for their financial performance remained weak. The Farm Financial Performance Index held steady and was nearly unchanged from July. The survey cited sub-cost crop prices as a key factor behind the pessimistic outlook. 

During the survey week, the USDA forecasted the 2025–26 season average corn price at $3.90 per bushel and soybean price at $10.10 per bushel—both below estimated production costs for many farms.

Despite the soft income outlook, the Farm Capital Investment Index rose 8 points to 61, driven largely by improved sentiment among livestock producers.

The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index declined for the third consecutive month, but the stat remained above 100. This suggests that more producers expect land values to rise than fall in the coming year. The report noted that 75 percent of crop producers expect farmland cash rental rates in 2026 to remain flat compared to 2025, while only 12 percent expect rates to decline.

In a special set of questions added to the August survey, 22 percent of farmers said they expect their 2026 operating loan to be larger than in 2025—up from 18 percent in January. Of those expecting a larger loan, 23 percent cited the need to carry over unpaid operating debt from 2025. By comparison, only 5 percent of respondents cited unpaid debt carryover in January 2023, and 17 percent in January 2024.

“In sum, the August Ag Economy Barometer survey results show that US farmers generally expect their financial performance for the coming year to drop from the previous year,” says Michael Langemeier, the barometer's principal investigator and director of Purdue University's Center for Commercial Agriculture. “Despite a weakening Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index in August, more farmers still expect farmland values to rise rather than to weaken. Lastly, the percentage of farmers citing expectations for rising operating debt because of unpaid operating debt carrying over from the previous year could signal increasing farm financial stress in production agriculture.”

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