Agronometrics in Charts: Chile's cherry season expects smaller yield but better fruit

Each week, the series ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic, and visualizing market factors that are driving change. Check out our entire archive.

Chile’s cherry season is running earlier and lighter than expected. Updated projections place the crop at 115 to 120 million boxes, well below the original forecast of 131 million boxes.

According to Nicolás Michelini of Chilean fruit exporter Quelen Fruit, “the factors behind this decline include frost, more aggressive pruning after a year of high volumes, complex pricing, and staleness affecting some Chilean orchards. We should have known that this year the trees would not produce as much fruit as last year.”

Chile's cherry season: higher quality, lower harvest output

Although the total volume is lower, shipments are significantly ahead of schedule, and cherry quality is excellent, Michelini adds.

"At an industrial level, 85 percent more fruit has been exported by this date, a phenomenon linked to earlier harvests rather than increased fruit availability," he explained. "Prices are lower than last year because of the heavy use of airfreight, but stable demand and better fruit quality are helping."

Michelini added that orchards exhibit better size distributions and increased firmness, qualities that are highly appreciated by the market, logistics remain smooth, and global retail continues moving toward smaller consumer packs and newer varieties.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

On the other hand, in the US, importers expect a solid cherry season. The first Chilean cherries arrived in early November, with vessels due in mid-December.

Chuck Sinks of Honeybear Brands forecasts a strong cherry season, quality-wise, and anticipates slightly more volume flowing to the US. 

But he stresses the need for balance, saying importers "don't want to tip the scales too far and cause issues in the US market."

“Overall, we feel we can get the volumes sold with the right quality,” he added.

Related stories: 

Chile set for record 2025-26 cherry season, targeting new markets beyond China

Global fresh cherry production expected to drop over 10 percent in 2025-26