US farmer sentiment slips in 2026 amid trade uncertainty and global competition concerns
As the world welcomes 2026, farmer sentiment in the United States is once again edging lower. Concerns about agricultural trade and global competitiveness weighed on long-term expectations, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer conducted in early December.
The figure fell three points from November to 136, driven by a weaker long-term outlook. The Future Expectations Index declined four points to 140, while the Current Conditions Index held steady at 128.
Producers’ views on their own farm finances showed little change. The Farm Financial Performance Index rose two points to 94, reflecting an increase in the share of producers who expect their 2026 financial performance to mirror last year’s results.
The Farm Capital Investment Index also increased two points to 58, although 60 percent of respondents say December was a bad time to make large farm investments.
"Even with some stability in expectations for their own operations, producers remain cautious about longer-term decisions," says Michael Langemeier, the barometer's principal investigator and director of Purdue's Center for Commercial Agriculture. "Uncertainty surrounding agricultural trade and growing concern about global competitiveness continue to influence how farmers think about the future."
Soybean outlook drags farmer sentiment
Producers offered mixed views on the outlook for US agricultural exports. When asked broadly about this, only five percent of respondents say they expect exports to decline over the next five years, one of the most optimistic readings of the year.
Farmer sentiment shifted when the focus narrowed to soybeans. Thirteen percent of corn and soybean growers said they expect US soybean exports to decrease over the next five years, up from eight percent in November. At the same time, the share expecting soybean exports to increase fell to 39 percent, down from 47 percent the prior month.
Competition from South America remains a point of tension. Purdue reported that 84 percent of corn and soybean producers said they were concerned about the competitiveness of US soybean exports relative to Brazil, including 45 percent of them who said they were very concerned.
Farmers continued to express optimism about farmland values. The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index increased one point from November to 117, placing it eleven points above its September low, and seven points higher than a year earlier. The Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index also rose one point to 166, a record high that stands twenty points above its September low and eleven points above last year’s level.
Tariffs remain a key concern
Confidence in tariffs as a tool to strengthen the US agricultural economy declined again. In December, 54 percent of respondents said tariffs would have a positive effect, down from 58 percent in October and 59 percent in November.
Uncertainty about tariffs also impacted farmer sentiment, with 19 percent of producers saying they were unsure, compared with 17 percent in November. Purdue noted that the share of producers uncertain about the effects of tariffs has more than doubled since the question debuted in the spring.
Despite those concerns, producers expressed greater optimism about the broader national outlook. 75 percent of respondents said the US was headed in the “right direction,” the highest reading since Purdue added the question to the survey in July.
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Reduced outlook for ag exports drives drop in farmer sentiment, survey finds
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