Agronometrics in Charts: Mexico poised for record avocado season in 2025–26
Each week, the series ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic, and visualizing trade market factors that are driving change. Check out our entire archive.
Mexico is on track for a historic avocado season, with exports to the US expected to reach record levels during the 2025–26 crop year, which runs from July 2025 through June 2026. Industry projections point to a total production of roughly 2.5 billion pounds, marking the first time Mexico is expected to cross that threshold.
The outlook is strong not only in volume but also in fruit quality. After two seasons dominated by high volumes of smaller fruit, this year’s crop is shaping up with larger, more retail-friendly sizes. Strong availability of 40s and 48s is expected to support aggressive promotions across US retail.
If projections hold, total volume would represent double-digit growth compared with last season and exceed the current record set in 2023. Mexico remains the only origin capable of supplying avocado volumes at this scale year-round.
Quality and volume: The perfect avocado season combo
Production from Michoacán, which accounts for the majority of exports, provides a consistent supply throughout the year. Jalisco, approved for US exports in 2022, continues to expand and plays an increasingly important role during the summer months, when Michoacán volumes are lower.
Together, the two states offer a complementary supply window that supports stable availability, with about 55 percent of Mexico’s total avocado production destined for the US market.
The Super Bowl remains the single largest consumption event of the year. Shipments in the four weeks leading up to the game are expected to surpass last year’s Mexican avocado season record, potentially reaching 280 million pounds, driven by early and sustained increases in weekly volumes.
Strong movement is also expected around other major occasions, including Cinco de Mayo and the Fourth of July. Beyond these peak moments, the industry continues to focus on driving year-round consumption.
While the Super Bowl, Cinco de Mayo, and Independence Day together account for roughly a quarter of annual avocado demand, most consumption occurs outside these events. Promotional efforts tied to sports, health and wellness, and international tournaments such as the World Cup are expected to play a key role in sustaining momentum throughout the year.
With favorable growing conditions, expanded production capacity, and strong demand drivers, the upcoming Mexican avocado season is shaping up to be one of the most significant in the industry's history.
Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)
Related articles
AFM sets the bar high for avocado season with 2.5B reasons to believe
Mexico 2025/26 citrus: Heavy rains slash orange yields as lemons and limes drive growth
California avocado season extending to early fall on robust harvest
Subscribe to our newsletter
