Global prune supply projected to shrink by 6 percent

With the Southern Hemisphere’s prune harvest now complete, Sunsweet Growers forecasts a six percent tightening in global supply for the 2025/26 season, totaling 193,000 metric tons.  This shortfall is set to stabilize prices and protect profit margins, especially for the coveted larger, premium fruit.

The estimate marks the third year of a smaller production trend, sitting 10 percent below the 2023/24 crop.

The company reports that Chile, the leading producer and exporter of dried plums, has produced an average-sized crop of approximately 75,000 metric tons of marketable fruit.

However, this is not enough to balance out the unexpectedly small harvests from Argentina and California.

Argentina’s prune production has declined again due to reduced planted area and adverse weather, including frost, Zonda winds, and hail. The company estimates the current harvest at 15,000 metric tons, similar to the 2024/2025 harvest. Last year, producers harvested less than half of the projected 32,000 tons.

Further north, California harvested a smaller crop in August 2025 compared to the previous two years, with an estimated output of 64,000 metric tons. The decrease, the company said, is the result of accumulated stress from the prior year.

Global 2025/26 prune market quality sees mixed results

On a brighter note, Sunsweet Growers emphasized that California’s fruit quality is exceptional, with high sugar content and excellent size.

Chile’s sugar levels, on the other hand, are lower than last year, and the average sizing is skewing smaller.

The company says that as the fruit is dried, there is a risk that premium, larger sizes will be in short supply due to poor dry-away.

Strong annual Chinese demand for both fresh and dried fruit continues, but according to the company, Chile had very little inventory carry-in from last season, and there will likely be a supply gap while the new crop is processed and graded.

Prune lovers may soon find store shelves emptier than usual

As total production is expected to fall short by about 12,000 metric tons, consumption remains steady. According to the company, the trend toward healthier snacking continues to support strong demand for prunes. But that’s not necessarily a good thing, as supply-demand imbalance is expected to increase costs, particularly as carryover inventories are projected to reach historic lows.

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