The US strawberry industry is expected to have an expanding, yet rocky, 2026

America’s demand for strawberries is set to stay strong this year despite growing supply, according to a report by RaboResearch, the market insights arm of Rabobank. This positive scenario, the firm says, is fueled by a steady, year-round presence in stores and ever-increasing harvests.

However, the industry is not exempt from challenges this year, and it must brace itself for swift changes in trade due to an antidumping probe into Mexico, changing packaging regulations in California, and shifting consumer habits.

US strawberry production has recently exceeded 2.6 billion pounds, according to the document, with output expected to surpass 2.7 billion pounds this year. Florida production is winding down, while California’s spring and summer season is ramping up, and northern regions are just starting. The industry's annual farmgate value is over $3 billion.

The berry is America’s favorite, ranking among the most consumed fruits in the country. An average US consumer eats about eight pounds of strawberries a year, a figure expected to rise due to strong availability.

California accounts for nearly 85 percent of national output, complemented by seasonal supplies from Florida and winter and spring imports from Mexico. This supply coordination keeps strawberries available nearly year-round.

A dispute between leading American winter strawberry suppliers

In December 2025, Florida’s Strawberry Growers for Fair Trade (SGFT) filed a petition to start an antidumping investigation into all fresh and chilled strawberries coming from Mexico between November and April. The claim alleges that the low-priced fruit coming from the Aztec country is harming American producers and workers.

Beyond the political ramifications of this complaint, Rabobank says an antidumping levy on Mexico could prompt notable shifts across the supply chain.

In the short term, a tax on Mexican strawberries would primarily benefit Florida growers and shippers, but would hurt the country’s industry at large, including American importers, distributors, and retailers that rely on early-season fruit from south of the border.

Downstream, foodservice operators and consumers in the East can also expect prices to vary by state during the winter months.

California’s new packaging requirements

New sustainability laws are forcing the strawberry industry to rethink its packaging, making the familiar strawberry PET clamshell a thing of the past in California.

On June 30, 2022, the Golden State passed the Plastic Pollution Prevention and Packaging Producer Responsibility Act, which requires that by 2032, all packaging sold in the state be recyclable or compostable. Furthermore, producers must reduce single-use plastic packaging and single-use plastic by 25 percent.

This presents a distinct challenge for strawberry packers, who rely heavily on PET clamshells.

The report states that, despite the legislation’s current framework excluding small producers and operators who grow, harvest, and package the fruit on the same site, most commercial producers exceed the $1 million gross sales threshold and use centralized packing facilities.

Even though PET packaging can qualify as recyclable under the legislation, there are recyclability requirements that might be difficult to meet, including the absence of nonrecyclable materials, such as labels, adhesives, colorants, and barrier layers.

Sustainability is no longer an option, the report states, and California regulations, as well as those of states following suit, will reshape packaging choices for the strawberry industry in the years to come.

Staying relevant in the US health and wellness era

The strawberry industry’s demand will remain resilient, consistent with trends across fruits, vegetables, and other nutrient-rich food categories.

However, the industry must keep its finger on the pulse of the market, as higher-income households are unlikely to increase consumption as incomes rise—but they will trade up to premium offerings. 

Lower-income consumers, on the other hand, are spending more cautiously, shifting toward lower-priced brands and private-label products, or cutting back on nonessentials.

This split means growth is happening at both the bargain and luxury ends of the market, often leaving mid-tier options squeezed out.

*All images are referential.

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