Florida citrus challenges freeze woes with new (and improved) forecast 

Low temperatures seem to be no match for Florida citrus growers. 

After a devastating February freeze that wreaked havoc on the state’s blueberry and strawberry fields, hope for a good 2025/26 season was scarce. However, the latest US Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS) report comes bearing good news and a revised forecast for the sector, up two percent from the previous January estimate. 

According to the agency, Florida will end the season with 12.2 million boxes, down only one percent from the previous year. Non-Valencia oranges will account for 4.7 million boxes, while Valencia orange numbers remain unchanged at the category’s end of the season in January, with a projection of 7.5 million boxes.  

The effects of the cold snap might have been more evident in variables such as Valencia orange fruit size and droppage, which were below and above average, respectively. 

The estimate for other Florida grapefruit production is up four percent, says the report, sitting at 1.25 million boxes—50,000 more in January. In the citrus breakdown, white grapefruit forecast is down 20 percent, while red grapefruit is up by 70,000 boxes, reaching 1.17 million.

Lemon growers are also celebrating, as the category’s forecast is up 29 percent since January, reaching 900,000 boxes. Meanwhile, tangerine and tangelos production will be up 13 percent, says the USDA, sitting at 450,000 boxes.

USDA citrus numbers are mostly up in the rest of the country

The agency’s citrus report also included revised estimates for other producing states, including California, Arizona, and Texas. 

In the Golden State, all-orange production is expected to increase to 48.5 million boxes, up six percent since January. Lemons are also up to 26 million boxes, while tangerines and mandarins are up 11 percent and sit at 30 million boxes. The state’s grapefruit forecast remains unchanged at 4.3 million boxes.

Down south, the forecast for Texas oranges kept steady, with a slight one percent increase, leaving production at 910,000 boxes. Grapefruit did take a hit, with a 10 percent decrease that reduced the production estimate to two million boxes. 

The lemon projection for Arizona was also down, though a bit more dramatically. The state estimate decreased by more than 20 percent, to 950,000 boxes. 

The next and final USDA forecast for the 2025/26 season will be published on July 10.

*All images are referential. 

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