Winter freezes cut Florida orange forecast by 23 percent

This year’s unpredictable weather patterns may be adding another crop to their victim list. Florida’s citrus industry, still grappling with sharp production declines and disease pressures, now faces a less-than-ideal outlook, as 2025’s winter freezes heavily impacted production across the Sunshine State.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)’s first citrus crop forecast of the 2026/27 harvest season, Florida will produce 10 million boxes of oranges, 1.3 million boxes of grapefruit, and 450,000 boxes of tangerines and tangelos. Despite the bleak prospects, the sector remains hopeful and resilient as ever.

Photo by Steve Doig via Unsplash.

"The devastating freezes last winter were a speed bump on our road to recovery. But there are many signs that point to strong performance in the years ahead," said Florida Citrus Mutual CEO and Executive Vice President Matt Joyner in a recent update.

If realized, the projections point to a 23 percent drop in orange production. Grapefruit yields are set to decrease by four percent, while tangerines and tangelos are expected to fall by two percent. Lemons, however, are forecast to rise by six percent.

"Growers are reporting healthier trees and improved fruit quality, and we’re seeing higher production per acre. As newly planted acreage matures, we’re hopeful the data will reflect the optimism we feel in the groves this season," Joyner noted.

Florida citrus growers urge federal aid

The fiscal year began on July 1, bringing $196 million to strengthen Florida citrus, including $160 million for the Citrus Research and Field Trial (CRAFT) Foundation to expand field trials of treatments and horticulture practices and support new plantings. 

The legislature’s investment also includes $20 million to bolster the industry’s infrastructure by purchasing, refurbishing, and repairing nursery and packinghouse equipment.

Photo by Reuben via Unsplash.

However, the industry body continues to advocate for passage of the Florida Freeze Disaster Assistance Act (H.R. 9094), which seeks $3.5 billion in emergency USDA funding through state-administered block grants. Beneficiaries would include farmers, ranchers, and growers facing production losses due to freezing conditions earlier this year.

The act was introduced by US House Congressman Scott Franklin (FL-18) and co-led by Congresswoman Kat Cammack (FL-03) alongside companion legislation introduced in the US Senate by Senators Ashley Moody and Rick Scott.

*Main photo by Philippe Gauthier via Unsplash.

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