A survey in the Central Valley showed the average fruit set per tree was higher than the five-year average, but volume will still probably fall short of last year. 

A National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) survey has forecast a Navel orange crop of 84 million cartons in 2016-17, of which 81 million will come from the state's Central Valley.

The survey from July 9 to Sept. 1 used estimated fruit set per tree, fruit diameter, trees per acre, bearing acreage, and oranges per box to make the forecast, also including specialty Navels like Cara Cara and Blood orange varieties.

The figure for the Central Valley is two million cartons short of last year's estimate, and seven million cartons short of the 88 million cartons of output that was eventually recorded for 2015-16.

"Survey data indicated a fruit set per tree of 384, above the five-year average of 334. The average September 1 diameter was 2.213 inches, below the five-year average of 2.251 inches," the NASS said.

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