Brazil’s orange output is set to rise in 2025/26, but La Niña and El Niño threaten weather stability

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects Brazil’s 2025/26 orange crop output will be 3.7 percent higher than initially estimated.

The latest USDA Brazil Citrus Annual report forecasts 330 million 90-pound boxes, up from 320 million, primarily due to anticipated favorable weather in 2026.

Despite greening disease affecting orange crops, the marketing year is expected to perform better if temperatures remain consistent and mild.

Most of Brazil’s citrus is produced in the citrus belt, composed of the northwest of São Paulo state and the western part of Minas Gerais state, known as “Triângulo Mineiro.” According to the Brazilian citrus organization, Fundecitrus, this area alone is projected to produce 294.81 million boxes.

After an early 2025 marked by dry weather conditions and subsequent slower fruit maturation, October rainfalls in key citrus-producing regions helped nurture the country’s orange trees and prepare them for next season’s blooms.

Irregular weather patterns' effects on Brazilian oranges

These positive projections, however, depend on La Niña's weather impacts in its final months before its transition to El Niño.

La Niña is marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, bringing with it drier weather to Brazil. El Niño, by contrast, features warmer surface water and weaker atmospheric circulation.

Growers in the citrus belt should prepare for drier periods, heat waves, and rising temperatures until March. Conditions may change if El Niño, typically associated with hotter weather and irregular rainfall in Brazil, develops.

The report notes these changes could significantly affect rainfall and temperatures, and advises growers to monitor conditions and adjust as needed.

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