Brazilian orange harvest forecast drops nearly 4% amid severe greening and drought

The Brazilian Citrus Defense Fund (Fundecitrus) released a new estimate for the 2025/26 orange harvest. The projection shows a 3.9 percent drop in total Brazilian orange production (294.81 million 90-pound boxes), below the association's September estimates. 

Initial forecasts issued in May by Fundecitrus were even more optimistic, sitting 6.3 percent above the Brazilian orange industry’s current level at 314.60 million boxes. 

The association explained production has decreased due to smaller-than-average fruit, a result of scarce rains and an increase in the projected drop rate. The latter has increased to 23 percent due to the greater severity of greening, the harvest pace, and climatic conditions.

The climate change impact on the Brazilian orange industry

According to Brazilian weather channel Climatempo, the average accumulated rainfall in the citrus belt between May and November 2025 was 392 millimeters—that’s 20 percent below the historical average of 489 millimeters. 

The Porto Ferreira region was the only one to record higher-than-average rainfall, with a two percent increase. Meanwhile, in the Triângulo Mineiro and Bebedouro areas, rainfall deficit rose to 47 percent and 40 percent, respectively.

"Until the publication of the second estimation in September, the harvest pace indicated that a significant portion of the Pera variety production would be harvested after the most intense rains forecasted for spring. However, the average rainfall in the citrus belt during that month was only 20 millimeters, a volume 70 percent below the historical average," stated Fundecitrus.

Furthermore, the association explained that October rains intensified only in the second half of the month, prolonging the months-long drought in the region and negatively affecting the development of Brazilian oranges harvested at the time.

Fundecitrus noted that, on average, fruit is four grams lighter than the September projection, so the number of oranges needed to fill a 90-pound box increases from 258 to 265.

What about varieties and fruit drop

In the Hamlin, Westin, and Rubi varieties, as well as other early varieties, the number of fruits remains stable: 305 and 272 fruits per box, respectively.

For the Pera variety, the projection increases from 261 to 267 fruits per box.

In the Valencia and Folha Murcha varieties, the quantity increases from 235 to 248 fruits per box.

The Natal variety was revised from 242 to 248 fruits per box.

Regarding fruit drop rate, Fundecitrus explained that the severity of greening in the region increased from 19 percent in 2024 to 22.7 percent in 2025. This hike effectively reduces the productive potential of the Brazilian orange industry by approximately 35 percent. 

"This factor largely explains the increase in the fruit drop rate from 22 percent in the previous re-estimation to the current 23 percent," it added.

Juliano Ayres, executive director of Fundecitrus, said that the combination of an unfavorable climate and increased average severity of greening directly affects the productivity of the Brazilian orange industry.

"The growth rate of the disease has been dropping, but the average severity is up. Today, 26.5 percent of orange trees with greening show symptoms in more than 75 percent of the canopy, which, combined with water deficit, increases fruit drop rate," Ayres explained.

*All images are referential

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