Global lemon and lime production to dip in 2025/26 as EU and Türkiye face yield losses
The global fresh lemon and lime market is bracing for a contraction in the 2025/26 season, driven primarily by significant production setbacks in traditional Mediterranean powerhouses.
According to the latest fresh citrus report from the US Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service, while some regions in the Western Hemisphere are seeing gains, they will not be enough to fully offset the losses occurring across Europe and the Middle East.
Production forecasts: A tale of two hemispheres
For the 2025/26 marketing year, global fresh lemon and lime production is projected to fall by more than 700,000 tons, bringing the total to 10.1 million metric tons. This downturn is largely attributed to smaller crops in the European Union and Türkiye, where adverse weather and ecological pressures have taken a heavy toll.
Türkiye is facing a "sharply reduced" lemon and lime harvest following severe frost and extreme weather events during critical growing windows. The country’s crop is forecast to be down 36 percent to 1.1 million tons due to damage from spring frosts.
Meanwhile, the European Union is expected to see a 12 percent drop in production, falling to 1.3 million tons. This decline is centered in Spain, the region’s primary lemon producer, which has struggled with erratic weather patterns and increased pest pressure.
Conversely, producers in the Americas are showing resilience. Mexico, a dominant force in the lime market, is forecast to increase its production by nearly three percent to 3.3 million metric tons.
Chile is also on an upward trajectory, with production expected to rise by 4.4 percent to 237,000 tons. Argentina, despite recent economic volatility, is projected to maintain a steady lemon production level of 1.9 million tons, supported by relatively mild weather conditions throughout the growing cycle.
Lemon and lime exports and demand: Shifts in global trade flows
The dip in production is reflected in a cooling of global trade, with total lemon and lime exports projected to fall by two percent to 2.4 million tons.
The most dramatic shift is seen in Türkiye, where exports are forecast to plummet by 128,000 tons to a total of 350,000, marking the country's smallest export volume in over 15 years. This supply vacuum in the Mediterranean has also led to a slight decrease in EU imports, which are forecast to go down by 24,000 tons due to the lack of available shipments from Türkiye.
While the Mediterranean faces a crunch, the United States continues to demonstrate robust demand. US lemon and lime imports are projected to grow for the fourth consecutive year, reaching 970,000 tons.
To satisfy this appetite, American markets are increasingly looking beyond traditional trade routes. Mexico remains the primary supplier, with its exports forecast to rise by three percent to 780,000 tons.
However, the report highlights a significant shift in sourcing, as the US continues to expand its intake from emerging suppliers like Colombia and Peru to bridge the gap left by fluctuating domestic yields. South Africa is also expected to capitalize on the global tightening, increasing its export footprint to meet international demand.
*All images are referential.
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