Agronometrics in Charts: Fresh fruit prices to see moderate 0.2 percent increase in 2026

Each week, the series ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic, and visualizing trade market factors that are driving change. Check out our entire archive.

The February 2026 Food Price Outlook published by the United States Department of Agriculture suggests that US food inflation is continuing to normalize after several volatile years. Overall food prices are projected to rise 3.1 percent in 2026, broadly in line with general inflation. Grocery prices, or food-at-home, are forecast to increase 2.5 percent, slightly below their 20-year historical average, while food-away-from-home prices are expected to rise 3.7 percent, continuing their pattern of outpacing supermarket inflation.

This moderation marks a clear shift from the sharp price spikes seen earlier in the decade. Following the near double-digit food inflation of 2022 and the elevated increases of 2023 through 2025, price growth in 2026 appears more contained and aligned with long-term trends.

Within this broader stabilization, fresh fruit prices are expected to remain particularly steady. Retail fresh fruit prices increased 0.7 percent from December 2025 to January 2026, yet they were still 0.5 percent lower compared with January 2025. For the full year 2026, fresh fruit prices are forecast to increase just 0.2 percent, effectively signaling a flat pricing environment at retail. The forecast range, spanning from a 4.0 percent decline to a 4.7 percent increase, reflects typical uncertainty tied to weather patterns, seasonality, and supply conditions.

At the farm level, fruit prices are projected to rise 1.5 percent in 2026, though with wider variability. Farm prices tend to be more sensitive to production shifts and climatic conditions, while retail pricing generally smooths those fluctuations as products move through distribution and marketing channels.

Taken together, the outlook suggests that 2026 will likely be a year of relative price stability for fruits within a moderating food inflation environment. Growth in fruit markets may depend less on price increases and more on volume performance, consumer demand patterns, and supply efficiency.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

*All photos are referential. 

Related articles

Agronometrics in Charts: Peru rains tighten United States mango market

Surging demand and higher prices fuel organic strawberry expansion in California