Agronometrics in Charts: Mexican mango volumes to drop 27 percent this summer

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Mexican mango supplies are expected to remain tight this summer as production transitions from southern to northern regions, with overall volumes projected to be lower than last year.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

According to Mission Produce, colder-than-normal temperatures this spring slowed fruit development and reduced flowering across Nayarit and South Sinaloa, creating what growers describe as a gap in peak production for fiberless varieties such as Kent and Keitt.

"Because this is typically the window for heavier production on fiberless varieties like Kent and Keitt, those were the most impacted," said Galen Johnson, Senior Director of Sales at Mission Produce, to Fresh Plaza. "Many growers are referring to this as a 'gap' in peak production, and the industry expects supply to remain more limited through mid-to-late July, particularly on smaller fruit sizes like 9-count, 10-count and 12-count."

Tommy Atkins' production is also winding down, as is typical for this stage of the season.

Mexican mango key markets

Meanwhile, production in the fruit fly-free zone of Los Mochis is expected to begin earlier than normal following a recent heat wave that accelerated fruit maturity. Despite the earlier start, Mission Produce said the region is anticipating significantly lower volumes than last year because of weak flowering.

The National Mango Board's latest Mango Crop Report, updated June 25, projects overall mango shipments from Mexico, Guatemala, and the Dominican Republic to be approximately 27 percent lower year-on-year between Week 26 (June 20) and Week 29 (July 11). The report also projects the 2026 Mexican season to finish approximately 14 percent below last year's volume.

Mexico remains the primary source of mangoes for the US market, supplemented by smaller volumes from Guatemala, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, and Brazil, according to Mission Produce. Johnson said growing conditions have been mixed, with cooler spring weather slowing development in key production areas while more recent heat has accelerated maturity in northern Mexico.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

The varying weather patterns have created an uneven supply as the Mexican mango season progresses. While some production regions are starting and finishing earlier than usual, Johnson said overall crop timing remains relatively close to a normal season. Mission Produce expects Mexican production to wind down around the second or third week of August.

According to the National Mango Board, Mexico shipped approximately 3.26 million boxes during the week ending June 20, bringing total seasonal shipments to more than 56.3 million boxes. During the same week in 2025, shipments totaled approximately 4.78 million boxes, highlighting the year-on-year decline in available volume.

Demand has also softened

"On the retail side, mango volume for May was down 15 percent year over year," Johnson said.

Despite softer retail movement, Mission Produce continues to emphasize fruit quality.

"We want consumers to have a great mango experience, so we're focused on varieties that deliver a premium eating experience," Johnson said. He added that premium mango shoppers spend nearly $45 annually in the category, about three times as much as the average mango shopper. He also noted that consumers are increasingly looking for seasonal and differentiated produce offerings, creating opportunities for high-quality mangoes.

Recent price trends suggest the market is already responding to tighter supplies. USDA data show US mango prices from Mexico have climbed sharply in recent weeks, witnessing a 63 percent increase in week 26 compared to 2025. The increase coincides with lower shipment volumes as production transitions into northern Mexico, reflecting the tighter supply conditions expected to persist through mid-to-late July.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

Mission Produce plans to launch its organic California Keitt program in late July, with limited volumes available through August and September. Johnson said the program is designed for consumers seeking organic, locally grown fruit or a premium eating experience during the late-summer season.

Looking ahead, the transition into Sinaloa, combined with lighter production across key growing regions, is expected to keep supplies tighter than last year through much of the remainder of the Mexican mango season.

*All images are referential. 

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