Berry demand will continue to grow despite greater global uncertainty, says Rabobank
Written and reported by Macarena Bravo, from Guadalajara, Mexico.
During the 16th edition of the Aneberries International Congress, held in Guadalajara, Mexico, at the end of July, David Magaña, Senior Analyst at Rabobank, dove deep into the current market dynamics shaping the global berry industry.
In his presentation, he noted that multiple exogenous factors, such as tariffs, trade wars, and the volatility surrounding the future of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), have made long-term planning difficult for the berry sector.
"Producers continue to face a scenario of high uncertainty, where investment decisions depend on variables such as interest rates, exchange rates, inflation, and consumer confidence," he explained.
Referential image | Shutterstock
One of the factors that has most impacted the competitiveness of Mexican berry exports is the depreciation of the dollar against other currencies, a situation that, in practice, acts as an indirect tariff by reducing exporters' income and raising production costs.
Despite this, Magaña emphasized that the United States continues to rely increasingly on berry imports to supply its fresh produce market. For blueberries, raspberries, and blackberries, a significant portion of demand is met by imported fruit to maintain year-round availability.
"The US consumer no longer accepts seasonality. Today, they expect to find fresh fruit 12 months a year, and that maintains a strong dependence on imports," he said.
Berry market perspectives
As blueberries continue to be the category with the highest growth in global consumption, the Rabobank specialist projected that Europe will gain prominence as an export destination toward the end of the decade. Meanwhile, Asia, and particularly China, is rapidly increasing its production and consumption.
Across the Atlantic, in the United States, wellness trends are driving demand for fresh fruit. Government programs to promote healthy diets, along with the rising use of GLP-1 drugs, are redirecting purchasing habits toward foods with higher fiber content and better nutritional profiles.
However, Magaña warned that the US is also showing a growing consumption polarization, in which higher-income households are purchasing more premium products, while the rest of the public is seeking lower-priced options, reducing space for mid-range products.
The Rabobank representative indicated that Mexican strawberries maintain solid demand, although they face anti-dumping investigations in the United States.
In the case of raspberries and blackberries, he explained that they are registering volume growth, but international prices have remained virtually stagnant, pressuring producers' profitability amid rising costs and a less favorable exchange rate.
Referential image | Shutterstock
He also warned that rising prices for fertilizer, energy, and other inputs will remain a challenge as long as international instability persists.
Magaña affirmed that the main challenge for the industry will no longer be stimulating demand, but maintaining competitiveness through greater efficiency, innovation, and consistent quality.
“The opportunity still exists, especially for Mexico. What will make the difference is offering a uniform consumer experience, with high-quality fruit every day of the year," he concluded.
*All images by Macarena Bravo, unless stated otherwise.
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