Global fresh cherry production expected to drop over 10 percent in 2025-26

According to a September 2025 report by the US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service, global fresh cherry production is projected to decrease more than 10 percent to 4.6 million tons.

Smaller harvests in Türkiye, the European Union, and the United States would be partially offset by increased production in China and Chile. If this scenario materializes, it would be the first decrease in global production in six years.

Ups and downs for fresh cherries

US production is estimated to decrease by 18,000 tons to 403,000, due to smaller harvests in California and Michigan.

In the European Union, production is projected to fall by 118,000 tons to 644,000, as spring frosts in Poland, Greece, and Italy offset a larger harvest in Spain.

Regarding exports, global shipments are expected to remain virtually unchanged at 939,000 tons. Chile's shipments are projected to increase by almost 10 percent to a record 670,000 tons, partially offsetting the decline in Türkiye, whose exports, according to the report, are expected to fall by 56,000 tons to 100,000 tons.

On the import side, China is expected to increase its purchases by 46,000 tons, reaching 600,000 tons. Meanwhile, the United States is expected to increase its imports by 6,000 tons to 30,000, due to higher anticipated shipments from Chile.

If this scenario materializes, it will represent a record level of imports for both countries. In contrast, a decrease in imports for the European Union and Russia is expected due to lower supply from Türkiye.

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