World Citrus Organization forecasts dip in Northern Hemisphere citrus output for 2025–26

The World Citrus Organization (WCO) projects only a slight decrease in Northern Hemisphere citrus output for 2025-26, but volume output remains over 5 percent below the previous four-season average.

In its 2025-26 Northern Hemisphere production forecast, based on data from citrus industry associations in the United States, Egypt, Greece, Israel, Italy, Morocco, Spain, Tunisia, Turkey, and Portugal, the WCO projects a total regional output of 27 million tons, a 1.5 percent decrease from last season.

Northern Hemisphere citrus country-by-country outlook

Despite the regional decline, United States citrus production is expected to increase. Early estimates from California and Florida indicate a 4.53 percent rise to 4.85 million tons.

The USDA’s annual forecast remains delayed due to the government shutdown.

Spain, the European Union’s largest citrus producer, is projected to produce approximately 5.59 million tons, a 9.72 percent decrease from last season and 11.20 percent below the four-year average.

Italy expects a 6.12 percent decrease to 3 million tons, while Greece anticipates a 1.58 percent reduction to 1.23 million tons.

Portugal’s production is forecast to rise 14.20 percent to 0.38 million tons.

Among non-EU Mediterranean suppliers, the organization projects that Egypt will become the region's largest producer, with output reaching 4.95 million tons, a 13.85 percent increase.

Turkey anticipates a 10.83 percent decline from last season, with output projected at 4.42 million tons. Morocco’s production is expected to remain stable at 2.09 million tons.

Israel reports the largest year-on-year increase, up 24.12 percent to 0.53 million tons. Tunisia’s production is estimated at 0.37 million tons, 3 percent lower than last year.

Citrus Category breakdown

Oranges, which account for 51 percent of total Northern Hemisphere citrus output, are forecast to decline by 2.16 percent to 13.86 million tons. Lemons are projected to decrease by 12.38 percent to 4.23 million tons.

Soft citrus, including mandarins, clementines, tangerines, satsumas, and other easy-to-peel varieties, is set to increase by 5.91 percent to 8.51 million tons.

Grapefruit production is projected to rise by 1.17 percent to 0.79 million tons.

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