Canadian apple outlook holds steady as drought caps deciduous fruit growth

Canadian apple growers entered marketing year 2025-26 hoping for a bounce-back season, but the weather had other plans, says a report by the United States Department of Agriculture’s Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN). 

Drought and heat across key producing provinces kept the Canadian apple crop from regaining ground. Consequently, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS)’s Ottawa office—also quoted in the document—is projecting stable production volumes amid increased reliance on imports.

Dry spell takes a bite out of Canadian apple gains

Early industry estimates anticipated a three percent increase in the 2025-26 Canadian apple season, but a lack of precipitation across eastern Canada ultimately slowed down the recovery.

Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia all experienced significant drought. In the west, British Columbia faced high temperatures and regional hail that particularly impacted the Ambrosia variety, USDA GAIN notes.

After reporting a “strengthened domestic demand for apples” in 2024, after years of declining consumption rates, FAS Ottawa forecasted steady demand into 2025–26.

The agency notes that a large US crop and adequate Canadian supplies should support competitive pricing and encourage buyers seeking value and storability. Canadian apple imports are forecast to grow by four percent as new market access for Ukraine and Australia becomes available.

Pears and grapes see upward swings

As for other deciduous fruit, the report notes that pear production should increase slightly in 2025-26. FAS Ottawa says that the 2024-25 crop suffered from an extreme cold event in British Columbia, and although conditions improved this season, lingering effects remain.

Ontario—the second-largest pear-producing province—faced drought, and industry sources estimate production will be down by approximately four percent. Bosc pears are projected to absorb most of the dip, with output falling by 40 percent.

Fresh pear imports are forecast to rise 14 percent, driven by expectations of a large US crop after lower volumes from the neighboring country curbed Canada’s imports in 2024-25.

Meanwhile, the Canadian table grape sector is set for a notable rebound, following “devastating losses” in 2024-25. Production will still fall short of 2023-24 levels, as drought also affected Ontario vineyards.

With increased domestic supply, fresh grape imports are forecast to decline by three percent, GAIN notes.

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