Why the Almond Board of California dropped the USDA’s decades-old Objective Measurement Report

The Almond Board of California (ABC) announced it will no longer fund the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) annual almond yield and crop production survey, known as the Objective Measurement Report.

The ABC, which has funded the Objective Measurement report since the 1960s, stated in a press release announcing the news that growers, handlers, and other stakeholders have questioned the report’s accuracy in reflecting almond production, expanding crop sizes, diverse practices, and varying weather conditions across California.

USDA’s Objective Measurement report methodology

The USDA Objective Measurement relies on physical orchard sampling by NASS field enumerators in late May and early June. This methodology, explained Natalie Henderson, ABC’s Director of Global Communications, has been in the center of industry members’ concerns about the NASS report, which haven’t subsided even with increased sampling.

“The report looks backward to make predictions moving forward,” she said. “Industry feedback has highlighted ongoing challenges in the Objective Measurement report's ability to accurately capture variables such as larger crop sizes, diverse grower practices, and weather events across California’s production regions.”

The Objective Measurement report provides minimum and maximum production forecasts, with an 80 percent probability that the final numbers will fall within this range. 

“The confidence interval or range has grown too wide, which creates too much volatility in the marketplace,” Henderson explained.

The executive added that the scope has become less precise over time, making the midpoint less useful for planning, pricing, and risk management.

“The range represented by the 80 percent confidence interval has increased from 300 million pounds in 2019 to 780 million pounds in 2025, calling into question its value for the industry,” the director explained.

Last year, the Objective Measure production estimate was 2.80 billion pounds, and the industry's actual crop was around 3 billion pounds, which caught the industry off guard. 

The board’s decision was not a reaction to this year's Objective Measurement, she added, but the response to ongoing concerns, as “a backward-looking model cannot quickly adjust to changes in production practices that impact yield.”

Even as ABC funding for the Objective Measurement Report will end, industry members can still look to the California Almond Subjective Forecast for projections, which will continue to be published annually in May by NASS. 

The Subjective Forecast provides a single production estimate. In 2025, this number was 2.8 billion pounds, based on a survey of almond growers in late April and early May.

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