Florida citrus production to hit new record low in 2025/2026 season, says USDA

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its first citrus production forecast for the 2025/2026 season, with projections showing a still depressed Florida citrus industry. 

The document shows steady national numbers compared to last year, with a slight decline of two percent in total orange production. Data shows the same drop in Valencia oranges, totaling 4.5 million boxes, and only a one percent drop in non-Valencian oranges, totaling 7.5 million boxes. 

The state-by-state numbers show a bit more of a difference. According to the government agency, total orange production in Florida is expected to drop to a new record low of 12 million 90-pound boxes, down 200,000 boxes or 1.6 percent compared to last year. 

This projection sets a downward trend for Florida citrus producers, who saw numbers drop dramatically since the 2023/2024 season, when production totaled a breakthrough 18 million boxes. Since then, extreme weather events and citrus greening disease have devastated the state’s once iconic citrus industry, which recorded its lowest numbers in over a century during the 2024/2025 season. 

The breakdown is not gentler on Florida citrus growers, either—Valencia and non-Valencia oranges, as well as grapefruit are expected to be a million boxes short this season. Tangerine and mandarin production is forecast to remain steady with 400,000 boxes (down only 80 thousand from the 2022/2023 season), while lemon output will go up by 30,000 boxes compared to last year. 

Florida citrus growers are still going strong

Regardless of these numbers, Matt Joyner, executive vice president and CEO of Florida Citrus Mutual is optimistic and emphasizes other fronts where his industry is seeing signs of a slow rebound.

“While this year’s initial crop estimate is lower than we would like, production is making steady gains on a per-acre basis and the industry is gaining confidence that we’re on the best path toward recovery as growers are reporting healthier trees and larger fruit,” he said.

Image courtesy of USDA

The executive explained that innovative treatments, therapies and disease-tolerant trees are making “a real difference.” 

In a statement, Florida Citrus Mutual noted that back in July the state received $140 million in state funds to support the local citrus industry. “More than $100 million was designated for research, field trials and planting disease-resistance varieties,” the document reads. 

The Sunshine state also received USDA funding back in Thanksgiving, as the government agency pledged to buy $30 million of the state’s citrus through the end of 2025.

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