Brazil’s citrus boom sparks orange juice recovery, but prices face pressure

Global orange juice production is expected to recover by more than 25 percent in the 2025/26 season, driven primarily by increased output in Brazil’s citrus belt. However, RaboResearch, Rabobank's market research arm, says prices may decline due to a projected decline in global demand.

According to the report, orange production in Brazil’s Triangulo Mineiro, which supplies most of the world's orange juice, is projected to reach 290 million 90-pound boxes in 2025/26, a 25 percent increase from the 230 million boxes in 2024/25.

Brazil’s frozen concentrate orange juice output is also expected to rise, reaching approximately 1.075 million US short tons this season. This represents a 27 percent increase from 2024/25.

RaboResearch notes that no one in the industry saw the early 2025 orange juice surge coming, given the season’s tough weather, labor gaps, and relentless greening disease. When the unexpected boost arrived, it triggered a rapid repricing across global markets.

Global orange juice consumption falters

Overall, the global orange juice supply is projected to be similar to the 2021/22 and 2023/24 seasons, around 1.43 million short tons, the report states.

However, consumption remains weak. The agency projects global demand to decline by 5 percent in 2025/26, resulting in a surplus of the juice of over 220,000 short tons.

RaboResearch expects the current season’s supply to continue pressuring juice prices in the coming year, but will now turn its focus to Brazil’s initial 2026/27 crops.

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