Fewer nuts, higher value: California pistachios projected to exceed $3 billion valuation

The California pistachio industry’s volume is expected to slow over the next five years, while farmgate value is expected to increase, Rabobank’s market insights branch, RaboResearch, reports.

According to the financial entity, the industry is entering a mature phase, with bearing acreage growth expected to level off by 2030. As output declines, prices are projected to increase, which forecasts say will push the industry over the $3 million valuation this season.

California pistachio output flattens

According to RaboResearch, the average annual California pistachio output will remain below two billion pounds this season, and production in the next five years will track under that threshold.

The 2025/26 season is projected to reach 1.6 billion pounds, a 40 percent year-over-year increase, though still below the initial 1.8 billion-pound industry estimate.

For 2026/27, the report projects a more conservative output range between 970 million and 1.23 billion pounds.

This season’s California pistachio projected outcome contrasts with the 2020/21 and 2022/23 seasons, when supply exceeded consumption and pricing suffered.

However, last season was an off year for the alternate bearing crop, which led to a recovery that set the stage for this year’s projected increase in pistachio prices.  

The US leads the global supply of the green nut, with California as the primary producing state and a key global industry anchor, says RaboResearch.

California benefits from increased global pistachio demand

Over the past three marketing years, the US has exported around 75 percent of its total output, with the remaining 25 percent staying stateside. 

Asia is the cornerstone of US pistachio shipments, says Rabobank, with China being the single most important destination, followed by Europe, which emerged as the key destination market last season.

According to RaboResearch, the stars have aligned for Golden State pistachio producers, as some of their main competitors are currently not in great standing. Türkiye and Iran, two other key suppliers of the nut, face structural constraints, including water scarcity, rising groundwater salinity, and persistent logistical and trade-related challenges.

Furthermore, global demand for the nut will remain strong in the 2025/26 season and beyond. However, converting demand into dollars will depend on sustained access to a broad and diversified set of international markets.

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