Agronometrics in Charts: Weather whiplash reshapes the 2026 California strawberry season

July 14 , 2026

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Agronometrics in Charts: Weather whiplash reshapes the 2026 California strawberry season

Each week, the series ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ examines a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic and visualizing the trade market factors driving change. Check out our entire archive.

The 2026 California strawberry season has been determined by dramatic weather swings that have affected both production and prices.

Warm temperatures in February and March brought the harvest nearly three weeks earlier than usual, producing higher-than-average yields. March production reached 80 to 150 trays per acre, well above the five-year average of 30 to 70 trays. The increased supply pushed strawberry prices down to between $7 and $10 per tray during the early part of the season.

However, cooler temperatures and rain in April and May slowed production and damaged crops. Rain can cause strawberries to split, burst, and develop mold, reducing the amount of marketable fruit. As weekly volumes declined, prices rebounded to between $10 and $16 per tray, giving many growers an opportunity to recover from the earlier price drop.

California is expected to harvest 43,726 acres of strawberries in 2026, a five percent increase over last year due to expanded fall plantings. While seasonal weather has played a major role, growers also continue to face long-term challenges, including rising water and labor costs and an increasingly complex regulatory landscape.

The economics of California strawberries

According to the UC Davis Cost Studies, strawberries have the highest production costs of any crop, with an estimated $112,694 per acre required to grow, harvest, and market the crop in Santa Cruz, Monterey, and San Benito counties. The studies also estimate that growers producing 9,000 trays per acre need an average price of about $13 per tray to break even.

Despite these challenges, consumer demand remains strong. Strawberries are the second-highest-selling fruit in US supermarkets, generating $5.4 billion in annual sales, and retail promotions have consistently boosted demand. As the season continues, growers who effectively manage weather-related risks, protect crops from disease, and control production costs are expected to achieve the strongest returns.