Record surge: US mandarin and tangerine imports to hit 555,000 metric tons as California output dips
In a season defined by shifting supply dynamics and a seemingly insatiable consumer appetite for easy-peelers, the United States is on track to set a new record for tangerine and mandarin imports.
According to the US Department of Agriculture, the country’s imports are forecast to climb by four percent, reaching an all-time high of 555,000 metric tons in the 2025/26 marketing year.
This marks the second consecutive year of record-breaking import volumes, a trend that underscores the growing importance of foreign supply in the American fruit bowl.
The agency noted that imports are now expected to account for nearly half of all US fresh tangerine and mandarin consumption.
The time is ripe for tangarin and mandarin imports
The surge in imports is largely the result of a projected dip in domestic production.
After a bumper year in 2024/25, California—which accounts for nearly all US tangerine and mandarin production—is entering a lower-yielding cycle, leading to a nationwide output forecast of 997,000 tons, down 10 percent.
While the Golden State’s harvest typically dominates the window between November and May, the gap left by a lighter crop is being filled by a diverse trio of international partners: Chile, Peru, and Morocco.
Chile and Peru remain the heavy hitters for the US market, primarily supplying fruit during the May-to-October window.
The US has historically been Chile’s primary destination for small citrus, usually receiving over 90 percent of the Andean country’s output.
Meanwhile, Morocco—the third-largest supplier—is expected to increase shipments between November and April, supplementing the lower local volumes during the peak winter months.
Despite the forecast record import levels, the USDA notes that the total US supply of tangerines and mandarins will actually fall by about five percent to 1.6 million tons. This suggests that while imports are working overtime, they won’t quite fully offset the contraction in domestic harvests, potentially keeping prices firm for retailers and wholesalers alike.
Global snapshot: Production inches up as exports boom
While the US market is navigating a domestic squeeze, the global citrus landscape remains resilient. Despite substantial gains in markets such as China, Türkiye, and Morocco, growth has been offset by significant declines in the European Union and the US.
According to the USDA, global tangerine and mandarin production is forecast to rise slightly (less than one percent) to a total of 38.4 million tons.
China remains the undisputed titan of the mandarin world. Its production is forecast to rise by 100,000 tons, bringing it to a staggering 27.1 million tons. This growth is being fueled by favorable weather conditions in the powerhouse growing regions of Guangxi and Yunnan. As the world's largest producer and consumer, the Asian Giant’s steady output provides a stable floor for the global market, even as it directs more fruit toward its own domestic processing industry.
Conversely, the European Union is facing a tougher season. Production in the EU is forecast to drop by six percent to 2.8 million tons. The report cites delayed fruit ripening in Spain and smaller fruit sizes in Italy as the primary culprits. This contraction is expected to lead to lower consumption within the bloc, as higher prices and limited availability of premium-sized fruit impact shelves.
An export renaissance
Global fresh tangerine and mandarin exports are projected to jump by more than 10 percent, reaching 4.8 million tons.
The surge is driven by the world’s top five exporters—China, Türkiye, Morocco, South Africa, and Pakistan—all of whom are expecting to ship higher volumes.
Türkiye is finally overcoming weather challenges from previous years. The USDA expects the country to be the main driver of the global export spike with a projected one million on rebounding production. International demand is also up, driven mainly by Russia, which will see its Turkish shipments increase this year, hitting a record 1.1 million tons.
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