Farmer sentiment ticks up, but outlook sours for year ahead
United States farmer sentiment edged higher in February, driven by improved views of current conditions, according to the latest Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. However, weakening expectations for the future signal continued caution across the agricultural sector.
“Although producers reported stronger current conditions in February, the overall farmer sentiment survey suggests growers are carefully weighing short-term stability against longer-term uncertainty,” said Michael Langemeier, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.
The barometer rose three points from January to a reading of 116, based on a survey conducted February 2–6. The Current Conditions Index increased by 11 points, while the Future Expectations Index slipped by one point to its lowest level since September 2024 and now sits 45 points below its February 2025 level.
“Many operations are still feeling financial pressure compared to a year ago, which is evident in their cautious investment strategies and a more reserved outlook for the coming year,” Langemeier added.
Farmer sentiment on investment plans stays grounded
Survey data indicate ongoing financial strain among many producers, reflecting current farmer sentiment. Forty-four percent of respondents said their operations were worse off than a year earlier. Looking ahead, 29 percent expect their financial performance to worsen over the next 12 months, compared with 18 percent who anticipate improvement.
The Farm Capital Investment Index rose three points to 50, but investment intentions remain limited. Just seven percent of producers said they plan to increase farm machinery purchases in the coming year.
Longer-term growth plans show mixed signals. While 51 percent of respondents expect to expand their farms over the next five years—including 14 percent planning to grow by at least 10 percent—15 percent said they intend to reduce their operation size, and 34 percent reported no growth plans. Meanwhile, 36 percent said they plan to bring another family member into the business, indicating continued focus on succession planning.
Export concerns ease slightly but remain elevated
Producers’ outlook for US agricultural exports improved modestly from January but remains weaker than late-2025 levels. In February, 14 percent of respondents said they expect exports to decline over the next five years, down from 16 percent in January but above five percent in December.
The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index rose to 123 from 117, while the Long-Term Index declined to 150 after reaching a record 166 in December. Respondents identified alternative investments, net farm income, and interest rates as the most influential factors affecting land values.
The farmer sentiment survey also examined how producers plan to use payments from the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program. Forty-seven percent said they will use the funds to pay down debt, while 27 percent plan to build working capital. Others indicated they will allocate funds toward family living expenses (12 percent) or farm machinery investments (14 percent).
Confidence in the broader US economy declined for a second consecutive month. Fifty-nine percent of respondents said the economy is headed in the “right direction,” down from 62 percent in January.
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