Agronometrics in Charts: Extreme weather sparks stunning 32 percent surge in US strawberry prices

Each week, the series ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic, and visualizing trade market factors that are driving change. Check out our entire archive.

Strawberry production headed into 2026 on a solid footing, with both supply and demand continuing to expand. Annual production has surpassed 2.6 billion pounds, while per capita availability is approaching 3.62 pounds, underlining strawberries’ central role in the US fruit market.

At the core of this growth is California, which accounts for roughly 90 percent of domestic production, complemented by Mexico’s early-season supply and Florida’s winter production window. Together, these regions sustain near year-round availability and support stable consumption patterns.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Seasonal supply remains the defining force

Despite overall growth, the market remains shaped by strong seasonal dynamics. Winter and early spring remain the most volatile periods, when supply transitions between Florida and California.

Recent data highlights how sensitive this window can be. Adverse weather in late 2025, including heavy rainfall in California’s Santa Maria and Oxnard regions, significantly reduced shipments, with final-quarter volumes down 27 percent year over year. At the same time, freezing temperatures in Florida during early 2026 disrupted harvests and limited output.

These supply constraints pushed prices higher, with grower prices in January 2026 rising by 32 percent from the previous year. As California volumes ramped up later in the season, prices began to ease, reflecting the typical seasonal correction.

Rabobank’s 2026 outlook reinforces this pattern, pointing to a wide range of possible outcomes depending on weather and regional production timing. Tighter supply conditions could support firmer prices, while stronger-than-expected volumes may lead to softer markets.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics. (Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Imports rise as exports soften

Trade data shows a mixed picture. US strawberry exports in 2025 reached 309.3 million pounds, the third-highest level on record, though still down 13 percent from the previous year. Meanwhile, imports climbed to a record 590.0 million pounds, reflecting strong reliance on Mexican supply during periods of lower domestic production.

This growing dependence on imports reinforces the importance of cross-border supply chains, particularly during the winter season.

Regulatory pressure reshapes the supply chain

At the same time, regulatory changes are beginning to reshape how strawberries are packed and marketed. California’s SB 54 and SB 343 laws introduce stricter requirements on recyclability and plastic use, creating new challenges for packers and brands.

While PET clamshells, the industry standard, may remain viable with adjustments, many alternative materials do not yet meet compliance thresholds. As a result, packaging decisions are becoming a strategic issue, with cost and regulatory risk playing a larger role.

Outlook: stable growth, but tighter margins for error

Overall, the US strawberry market in 2026 reflects a balance between steady growth and rising complexity. Supply is expanding, demand remains solid, and the category continues to perform well.

At the same time, the margin for error is narrowing. Weather volatility, trade disputes, regulatory changes, and shifting consumer behavior are all adding layers of uncertainty.

In that context, success will increasingly depend on how well growers, shippers, and retailers navigate seasonal dynamics and adapt to a more complex operating environment.

Related articles:

The US strawberry industry is expected to have an expanding, yet rocky, 2026

Mexican strawberry industry calls for calm in the midst of the US anti-dumping probe

The International Trade Commission issues a preliminary ruling on Mexican winter strawberry imports