South American avocado exports smash records amid climate risk

South American supplies continue to set the pace in the international avocado market, with the region hitting exports of one million metric tons for the first time last season, Rabobank’s Global Avocado Update 2026 notes. 

The growth was led by robust production in Peru, accounting for over half of the historic million mark. Meanwhile, Colombia is expected to close the 2025/26 season with a 16 percent year-on-year uptick in production. Finally, Chile recorded its most productive cycle in 16 years, as the sector struggles with water scarcity. 

However, the report warns that upcoming production cycles may face unpredictability due to adverse weather patterns.

"Although the outlook calls for further growth, El Niño-related weather risks in the coming seasons introduce uncertainty about yields and quality," the assessment stated.

For top producers such as Peru, the onset of the weather phenomenon could lead to flooding, which can cause serious issues, such as root disease and fruit drop. In Colombia, where avocado organizations have doubled efforts to gain space on global shelves, fungal pressure could also become a challenge.

In Chile, however, a heightened El Niño could bring some much-needed rain for the avocado sector and other crops, following several years of drought.

Smaller regional exporters such as Ecuador and Brazil also continue to expand production acreage to capitalize on global demand, supporting the continent’s long-term trend of structural supply growth.

Seasonal congestion and regulations weigh on South American efforts

Weather woes aside, seasonal congestion and heavy reliance on certain markets remain risks for South American avocado producers. With new and fruitful players entering the market in recent years, surging volume from South America contributes to higher volatility and shifting price structures. 

Despite EU imports increasing nearly fivefold since 2010, volumes concentrated heavily in the summer window trigger midyear price slumps, contrasting sharply with tighter supply and price recovery during winter months.

Conflict-driven disruptions have also affected cost and demand. In Peru, imported fertilizer and crop-protection prices rose by 18 percent year-on-year, pushing overall input costs by two to four percent. 

Beyond volume pressure, South American exporters face changing operational standards. Potential trade policy shifts under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which the US recently declined to renew, weigh on market sentiment, Rabobank noted, and could delay investment and supply chain decisions.

"Producers and exporters must prioritize labor compliance, traceability, and operational efficiency to mitigate margin pressures in an increasingly competitive environment," the report stated.

*All images are referential via Unsplash, unless stated otherwise. Graphs courtesy of Rabobank. 

The second edition of the Global Avocado Summit will be held on November 11, 2026, at the Monticello Casino Events Center in Santiago, Chile. Organized by Paltas de Chile and Yentzen Group, the meeting seeks to bring together the main players in a growing industry

The event has established itself as a key space for addressing commercial and sustainability issues in the industry, bringing together producers, exporters, buyers, certifiers, and innovators to analyze the sector’s challenges and opportunities.

For more info, contact events@yentzengroup.com

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