Rising supply, organic growth, and policy shifts reshape North American avocado market

Amid rising supply from Mexico and a strong California season, American demand for fresh avocados seems to be ever-growing. However, behind a booming 2025/26 season, there’s a shifting landscape that might shape the future of the green gold in the US. 

In its Global Avocado Update 2026 report, published in July, Rabobank offers an in-depth analysis of the factors driving transformation across the North American market, saying that shifting supply dynamics and structural evolutions are redrawing trade flows and pricing strategies.

"In the North American market, record Mexican exports, together with a solid Californian crop in 2025/26, have pushed US avocado supply to historic highs," noted Rabobank experts behind the report. "This marked a sharp turnaround from the prior season and drove a normalization of prices and a narrowing of size-based price spreads."

Growing supply, growing demand

The influx of fruit into the United States is redefining market equilibrium across the region. 

Favorable weather conditions in Mexico paved the way for an exceptional 2025/26 season that brought record export volumes. Combined with a strong rebound in California’s domestic yield, this unprecedented supply put pressure on pricing dynamics, normalizing prices and narrowing the gap between different fruit sizes. What in 2025 looked like a one-to-three ratio between the prices of the smallest and largest calibers, in 2026 decreased to closer to a five-to-six proportion.

However, this heavy supply environment has also created high market sensitivity, says Rabobank, where even subtle volume fluctuations influence wholesale pricing.

Meanwhile, the rapid growth of the organic category has intensified market segmentation, enabling producers to target specific consumer preferences. The phenomenon has also been driven by the strong growth of the organic produce category at large, with non-GMO avocados enjoying a whopping 40 percent premium, which can reach close to 70 percent during peak weeks. 

"Looking ahead, we think strong supply, high price sensitivity, and growing policy uncertainty around the upcoming review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will shape the US market," the authors say.

A shuffling avocado landscape

Beyond seasonal yield numbers, internal transformations within the Mexican avocado sector also have the potential to change the game—both internally and across the border. 

Industry fragmentation, where approximately 65 percent of exported volumes come from a diverse range of small producers, presents operational challenges and supply coordination complexities. 

Compounding the situation is the coming into effect of stricter policy regulations and labor compliance requirements both locally and abroad. This is raising the baseline operational standards and costs for Mexican packing facilities and exporters supplying the US market.

To navigate these evolving conditions, the Rabobank experts stress the need for strategic adaptation and predict the consolidation of the supply chain in the near future. 

Image courtesy of GLC Cerritos | Archive

"Producers and exporters must prioritize labor compliance, traceability, and operational efficiency to mitigate margin pressures in an increasingly competitive environment," they write. 

The process has already started with the merger of two major actors in the Mexican avocado industry: Mission Produce and Calavo. 

Furthermore, with the upcoming USMCA review introducing potential policy adjustments for cross-border trade, the document advises industry players to remain agile, as “policy shifts will require stronger supply chain collaboration and targeted market segmentation to ensure long-term stability across North American trade channels."

*All images are referential via Shutterstock, unless stated otherwise. Graphs courtesy of Rabobank. 

The second edition of the Global Avocado Summit will be held on November 11, 2026, at the Monticello Casino Events Center in Santiago, Chile. Organized by Paltas de Chile and Yentzen Group, the meeting seeks to bring together the main players in a growing industry

The event has established itself as a key space for addressing commercial and sustainability issues in the industry, bringing together producers, exporters, buyers, certifiers, and innovators to analyze the sector’s challenges and opportunities.

For more info, contact events@yentzengroup.com

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