California almond acreage to fall for first time in 30 years
Seems like California almond trees are giving up a little ground. Bearing acreage is projected to decline for the first time in three decades this year, as tighter margins and below-average yields reshape the sector’s outlook.
The US Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS) forecasts 1.39 million bearing acres this year, down 10,000 acres or 0.7 percent, from 2025.
The decline follows 30 consecutive years of year-on-year increases, during which almond bearing acreage more than tripled from 418,000 acres in 1995 to 1.4 million acres in 2025.
California almond growers weather the weather
The USDA expects the production-area shrinkage to cause a 15 million-pound, or 0.6 percent, decline in 2026 almond production. But there’s more behind the drop than simply fewer acres.
“One contributing factor is high input prices, which may have decreased growers’ fertilizer and pesticide use in 2026,” the report notes.
Additionally, the industry has faced a series of weather challenges. Drought affected yields in 2022, storms disrupted pollination in 2023, summer heat affected the crop in 2024, and storms during harvest affected production in 2025.
Compounding this situation, previously abundant yields have lowered prices, further squeezing grower margins.
“In 2014, almond prices reached a record level of $4 per pound, which is equal to $5.31 per pound in 2025 dollars. Since 2014, increases in almond production have put downward pressure on prices, which decreased to a low of $1.40 per pound in 2022,” the report states.
Prices have since recovered, averaging $2.60 per pound in 2025. The USDA says this increase has helped California almond growers cover their costs, providing some reassurance despite tighter margins than a decade ago.
A 2024 Costs and Returns Study by the University of California Davis Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, quoted by the USDA, found that growers producing 1,940 pounds per acre, the yield NASS forecasts for 2026, would break even at an almond price of about $2.25 per pound.
Average prices received in 2024 and 2025 exceeded that threshold. Recent unit values for shelled almond exports also indicate prices are likely to remain above break-even through the end of the 2025/26 California almond marketing season, according to the assessment.
“Prices in 2026/27 will be driven by the size and quality of the 2026 crop. Uncertainty about these crop attributes will resolve as the summer progresses and throughout the fall harvest season,” the document concludes.
*All images are referential via Unsplash.
Related stories
California Almond Board shifts India strategy to drive future demand
Subscribe to our newsletter
