Of the total, 77 million cartons are estimated to be in the Central Valley.
This forecast is based on the results of the 2018-19 Navel Orange Objective Measurement Survey, which was conducted from June 15 to Sept. 1.
Estimated fruit set per tree, fruit diameter, trees per acre, bearing acreage, and oranges per box were used in the statistical models estimating production.
The varieties forecast in this report include conventional, organic, and specialty Navel oranges (including Cara Cara and Blood orange varieties).
Survey data indicated a fruit set per tree of 426, above the five-year average of 333. The average Sept. 1 diameter was 2.12 inches, below the five-year average of 2.27 inches.
For the survey, a sample of 778 Navel orange groves was randomly selected proportional to county and variety bearing acreage, and 703 of the groves were utilized in this survey. Once a grove was randomly chosen and grower permission was granted, two trees were randomly selected.