In this installment of the ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ series, we take a look at the 2025's California avocado crop. Each week the series looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic visualizing the market factors that are driving change.

California’s avocado growers are set to deliver their third-largest crop in a decade during the 2024-25 marketing year, with an estimated production of 375 million pounds. This represents a 44% increase from the previous three-year average and a 3% increase from the previous year.

The Hass variety will comprise approximately 95% of California's crop, which amounts to approximately 355 million pounds. The remaining 5% will comprise Lamb, Gem, and other varieties. California typically supplies approximately 90% of the avocados produced in the United States. However, the nation's total domestic production only accounts for approximately 10% of the total avocado availability in the country, underscoring the country's significant dependence on imports.

The United States imported a record $3.8 billion worth of fresh avocados in 2024, the highest amount ever reported in both nominal and inflation-adjusted terms. The majority of the value, approximately 91%, was sourced from Mexico, with the majority being classified as Hass-like (both conventional and organic). The majority of these avocados were imported through the Laredo district in South Texas, while lesser volumes were imported through Philadelphia (primarily from Peru and Colombia) and Miami (primarily from the Dominican Republic and Colombia). A transient supply crunch in the U.S. market was caused by lower shipments from Mexico and Peru earlier in the year, despite the improved crop in California, which pushed prices up.

The Mexican Hass Avocado Importer Association (MHAIA) has reported a decrease in the proportion of larger fruit sizes in Mexican shipments this season. Specifically, only 41% of Mexican shipments through February 2025 were larger fruit, a decrease from 45% last year and a significant decrease from the 71% share a decade ago. California's 2024/25 shipments commenced in mid- January (earlier than is customary) and had already reached 8% of the projected crop by early March, surpassing the 4-year average of 5%. The state's season may conclude prematurely if this tempo persists, as was the case in 2022. Meanwhile, Mexican shipments are expected to continue as harvest moves to higher elevation orchards in Michoacán and Jalisco, but overall volumes may ease through the middle of the year.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

In our ‘In Charts’ series, we work to tell some of the stories that are moving the industry. Feel free to take a look at the other articles by clicking here.

All pricing for domestic US produce represents the spot market at Shipping Point (i.e. packing house/climate controlled warehouse, etc.). For imported fruit, the pricing data represents the spot market at Port of Entry. You can keep track of the markets daily through Agronometrics, a data visualization tool built to help the industry make sense of the huge amounts of data that professionals need to access to make informed decisions. If you found the information and the charts from this article useful, feel free to visit us at www.agronometrics.com where you can easily access these same graphs, or explore the other 21 commodities we currently track.