Fresh produce may keep on growing, but shoppers are prioritizing value, Circana says

Produce sales continue to post dollar growth in the United States, but recent volume trends suggest consumers have become more selective about what they put in their baskets, according to market research company Circana. The firm discussed category performance during the New Pathways to Growth in Produce & Floral webinar, hosted by the International Fresh Produce Association (IFPA).

Data covering the 52 weeks ending May 17 showed balanced growth across fresh fruits and vegetables, with gains in both dollars and volume. However, a closer look at the most recent four-week period revealed declining fruit volumes and slowing overall produce purchases, even as dollar sales continued to rise.

Bailey Furtado, senior fresh foods industry analyst at Circana, said the shift stems more from changing shopper behavior than inflation alone.

“This suggests that consumers are still buying produce, but they are buying less per trip,” she said.

The latest four-week data showed tomatoes, salad kits, and lettuce leading vegetable sales by dollar value. At the same time, growth rates favored staple cooking ingredients such as tomatoes, lettuce, peppers, and cucumbers. In volume terms, onions, tomatoes, cucumbers, and potatoes posted the strongest gains.

Furtado said the trend points to shoppers focusing on affordable ingredients that support home meal preparation.

On the fruitier side, berries, grapes, and apples remained the largest categories by dollar sales, with cherries, grapes, and apples driving the strongest dollar growth supported by seasonal demand. However, berry volumes declined while cherries, grapes, apples, and avocados gained volume share.

Beyond the meal-prep craze, consumers appear to be favoring products that offer greater versatility, longer shelf life, or seasonal appeal, Furtado also noted.

Cherries shine, but buyer retention raises concerns

While some seasonal categories have benefited from strong demand, the Circana expert warned that the industry should focus on attracting and retaining shoppers rather than relying solely on favorable supply conditions.

Analysis of four-week performance showed fresh fruit and vegetable categories lost some dollar sales because shoppers who purchased produce during the same period last year did not return this year.

“This intentional shrinking of trips and baskets is going to continue to affect us in this era of affordability,” said Jonna Parker, team lead at Circana’s Fresh Foods Group. “We can't just assume we're going to bank on last year's behavior.”

Parker also expressed concern about slowing purchase frequency in some categories and cautioned against relying too heavily on deep discounts to drive demand.

The presentation emphasized that produce suppliers and retailers should focus on shopper acquisition, purchase frequency, and basket size rather than evaluating performance solely by sales dollars.

Digital channels fuel specialty produce opportunities

Circana also identified younger consumers, Hispanic households, and digital commerce as key growth opportunities for the produce industry.

Parker said social media is creating opportunities for specialty produce items that traditionally received limited shelf space.

“People crave healthy foods that are exciting and different and fun and social,” she said.

Growing consumer interest in purple produce, including purple potatoes, cauliflower, and asparagus, is a reflection of this. The trend is driven in part by broader food and beverage trends featuring ube (or yam) and other similarly colored ingredients. Despite rising consumer awareness, Parker noted that fewer than 20 percent of produce distribution points currently feature these items.

Kiwifruit also emerged as a category benefiting from online discovery, particularly among younger consumers.

Likewise, fiber-related messaging presents another opportunity as consumers increasingly seek foods that support digestive health and complement GLP-1-related dietary habits.

Digital grocery shopping continues to expand as well. According to Circana, online food and beverage sales reached $105 billion, up 20 percent, while 72 percent of US households have purchased food or beverages online. Produce now ranks second only to meat in digital adoption among perishable categories.

Looking ahead to the summer season, Furtado said the produce industry cannot assume consumers will automatically prioritize fresh items in a budget-conscious environment.

“Produce is a staple, especially with all the holidays coming up, but consumers are watching their baskets and their wallets a lot more closely,” she said. “So promotions, items, relevancy, all of that is of great importance this summer.”

*Photos are referential.

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