Independent grocers show resilience amid economic turmoil 

Amid a turbulent economic and commercial environment, the independent grocery industry managed to remain financially resilient in 2025. 

According to the latest edition of the US Independent Grocers Financial Study, released by the National Grocers Association (NGA) and the marketing insights firm FMS Solutions (FMS) at the end of July, cautious consumer spending, elevated household debt, and ongoing economic uncertainty resulted in modest top-line growth for the sector. However, margins still increased slightly, reaching 28 percent. 

Underpinning this steady course amid turbulent waters, say the publishers, is a shift in Americans’ shopping habits. 

"The more interesting story is what the data reveals about opportunity: e-commerce basket sizes three times the in-store average, AI adoption still in early stages, shrink still costing operators real margin. There is meaningful upside here for operators ready to act on it," said Robert Graybill, President and CEO at FMS Solutions.

A changing landscape for independent grocers

Shoppers changed how and how much they spent, says the report. Grocery inflation moderated compared with previous years, but consumers continued feeling the cumulative effects of several years of higher food prices. 

"When shoppers tighten their budgets, they don't abandon their local grocer; they rely on them more," said Greg Ferrara, President and CEO at the National Grocers Association. “The 2025 data reflects a channel that has earned that trust, and independent operators who continue investing in fresh, in loyalty and in their people will be the ones consumers keep coming back to.”

Shoppers made more frequent trips while buying fewer items per visit, leaning heavily on promotions, private brands and value-focused strategies. Independent grocers responded with stronger loyalty initiatives, digital engagement and a continued emphasis on fresh foods.

Part of this changing trend is the growing market share of e-commerce, which the report suggests independent grocers are underutilizing. 

Online sales accounted for just over one percent of independent grocers' total revenue in fiscal year 2025. The average online basket was roughly three times the size of the typical in-store purchase, indicating meaningful upside for operators willing to invest in their digital presence.

Similarly, the NGA and the FMS also identify artificial intelligence as an untapped opportunity for the sector. 

While only a small share of independent retailers currently use AI extensively, most are piloting or evaluating applications, primarily in marketing content, customer engagement and business analytics. Operators broadly view AI as increasingly important to competitiveness over the next several years, though adoption remains in its early stages.

*All images are referential via Shutterstock.

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