Nearly 50 percent of Americans are cutting grocery spending, study says

Grocery shoppers in the United States are buying fewer items, according to a new analysis from Bain & Company and NielsenIQ. Unit sales declined 1.8 percent, with total volumes falling by about two percent year-on-year.

The slowdown began in mid-2025, when retailers first saw sustained negative unit growth. Since February, however, the decline has accelerated and spread consistently across US regions.

“The data is unambiguous: US grocery is in a genuine volume contraction, and the path back to growth is not just about low prices, but a value story that shoppers believe in and come back for,” said Kurt Grichel, head of Bain & Company's Americas Retail practice and co-author of the report.

Several factors have combined to reduce purchasing rather than a single event triggering the slowdown. The data point to lower participation in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) beginning late last year, a 20 percent increase in US gas prices in March, and cumulative grocery inflation of 33 percent since 2019. 

The firms also cited broader inflation across consumer spending categories and slower growth in disposable income. Bain's latest Consumer Lab pulse survey found that 80 percent of Americans reported trying to reduce spending, while 28 percent said they were actively cutting grocery purchases. 

Among consumers reducing spending, 56 percent said they were switching to lower-priced brands, 49 percent reported buying fewer items, and 44 percent said they relied more heavily on coupons and promotions.

A shift in grocery sales

As overall grocery volumes contract, Bain said retailers now compete for market share rather than benefiting from overall category growth.

The analysis found that value-focused retailers, including discounters, dollar stores, mass retailers, and warehouse clubs, continue to attract shoppers seeking lower prices. However, the assessment noted that declining unit sales affect those formats as well.

The report also identified continued growth in online shopping as a contributing factor, noting that online shoppers typically purchase smaller baskets. Increased use of GLP-1 weight-loss medications also contributes to lower purchases, with 30 percent to 40 percent of users actively trying to reduce grocery spending.

Bain's Consumer Health Index showed financial pressure remains elevated despite some improvement. The report said the index recently returned to neutral after weakening for much of the past year. 

“Retailers that respond with precision on assortment, promotion, and private label will be best placed to capture the trips that are still up for grabs,” Grichel concluded.

*All images are referential via Unsplash.

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