Brazilian citrus belt faces sour season on weather, disease-struck yields

Your morning glass of OJ might soon see a sour uptick. Brazilian orange inventories are projected to be down for 2026/27, a recent assessment by Fundecitrus reports.

The industry body projected a total orange crop of 255.20 million boxes for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt. The estimate reflects a 13 percent year-on-year drop, and sits 15 percent below the historical 10-year average. 

The Brazilian citrus sector has continued to face tight supplies, with final orange output for 2025/26 totaling 292 million boxes, seven percent below the initial forecast issued in May 2025. 

The entity attributed the smaller harvest primarily to a 17 percent reduction in the average number of fruits per tree, which fell to 514. Additionally, the industry is seeing an elevated premature fruit drop rate of 24 percent, which results in a total field fruit loss rate of 31 percent. 

These losses outweigh the positive impacts of a larger overall tree population and heavier fruit weights at harvest. According to the report, the average weight of an orange at harvest will reach 5.64 ounces, up from 5.41 ounces in the prior season.

Extreme temperatures and disease drag Brazilian citrus yields

Fundecitrus estimates the overall average yield for the 2026/27 crop season at roughly 282 boxes per acre, a 14 percent decrease from the 809 boxes per acre harvested last season.

Despite the shrinking production volume, the overall orange orchard area expanded by almost two percent. Main orange varieties account for 989,060 acres. 

However, this growth conceals a massive geographical reallocation, as producers have been forced to migrate away from Southern areas heavily infected by greening disease. The region contracted by 3,321 acres as producers abandoned or eradicated infected groves. As a result, the Northern sector grew by 12,879 acres.

Adverse weather events also weighed on yields. A prolonged drought in May 2025 created severe stress, which growers later broke with supplemental irrigation to induce the first bloom. 

Additionally, extreme heat waves in September compromised the fruit set. While heavier rainfall between December 2025 and April 2026 helped fruit sizing, second-bloom fruit dominates the crop–which is traditionally smaller and often signals tree stress–, accounting for 56 percent of the total forecast. 

*All images are referential. 

Related stories

Brazilian apple exports triple in the first half of 2026

Global OJ supply to drop 13 percent on smaller Brazilian crop, weak demand