Agronometrics in Charts: Mexican raspberry and blackberry shipments step up as El Niño weighs on Peruvian supply

Each week, the series ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ examines a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic and visualizing the trade market factors driving change. Check out our entire archive.

The North American berry market is heading into fall with two very different supply stories. Mexican raspberry and blackberry volumes are climbing, while El Niño is cutting into blueberry production in Peru and Chile.

Mexico's raspberry and blackberry shipments are building, and suppliers expect good availability over the next couple of months. "We're seeing an increase in blackberries and raspberries from Mexico," says Jerry Moran, Vice President of Sales at Naturipe Farms, adding that this gives retailers good opportunities to promote berries this fall.

Demand is keeping pace. Moran notes that household penetration, trips per buyer, and volume purchased per trip have all increased for raspberries and blackberries. That combination of rising supply and stronger buying makes the coming months an important window for both categories.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

The blueberry picture is moving in the opposite direction. El Niño is affecting production in South America, particularly Peru and Chile, and Naturipe expects a lighter crop from the region.

The numbers from Peru, the world's largest fresh blueberry exporter, back this up. Industry association Proarándanos now forecasts 2026–27 exports at about 366,000 tons, about four percent below last season, even though roughly 15 percent more hectares are in production. The season started strongly, with shipments through week 38 running 19 percent ahead of last year. Volumes from week 39 to the end of the season are expected to fall 14 percent below the same period in 2025–26.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

With weather becoming harder to predict, suppliers are turning to breeding. "Weather is unpredictable, and you can't control it. What we can control is how we prepare," Moran says. Naturipe's varietal work focuses on fruit suited to each production region's climate, aiming for steadier quality and availability over time.

Weather isn't the only pressure. Rising labor and fuel costs are raising the expense of growing and moving fruit, and the category is still recovering from a summer of recalls, mostly involving frozen berries. Moran says fresh berry demand is now coming back.

For now, the fall berry aisle looks set to lean on Mexico's raspberries and blackberries while South American blueberries remain the variable to watch.

*Graphs courtesy of Agronometrics. | Top photo by Zoe Richardson via Unsplash.

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