Southern hemisphere cherries are missing out on a $800 million opportunity

In front of a packed Arena Monticello in Santiago, Chile, Kroger’s VP of fresh sourcing, Patrick Haines, painted a clear and mesmerizing picture: the US market as a land of untapped opportunity for Southern Hemisphere producers. 

As one of the keynote speakers at the 7th Annual Global Cherry Summit held on April 21, the executive emphasized the center-stage role of fresh produce in the retail floor, positioned immediately at the entrance of nearly every Kroger location to signal quality and freshness. 

“Our customers are very fresh-forward, so they're looking for new things, they're looking to expand their fresh experience,” he said. 

However, this demand presents untapped potential for products like Chilean cherries and Peruvian grapes, which currently don’t hold the market share their volume and international reputation would suggest.  

By bridging the gap, Haines believes the industry can move past seasonal "flashes in the pan" toward a stable, long-term partnership that maximizes returns for growers and value for shoppers.

The "8x" cherry growth potential: Closing the category gap

Haines' presentation centered on the stark contrast between the success of grapes and citrus versus the current state of the cherry market. 

During the US summer, the Kroger exec said, domestic grape sales are considered the 100 percent benchmark. When the season shifts to the Southern Hemisphere (November through May), the retailer still manages to sell approximately 74 percent of that volume. Similarly, the soft citrus category maintains 76 percent of its domestic volume when transitioning to suppliers in Peru, Chile, and South Africa.

Cherries, however, tell a different story. While domestic sales from Washington and California are robust, the Southern Hemisphere portion—which recently concluded—reached only nine percent of the Northern Hemisphere’s volume. Haines identified this as a massive "opportunity gap".

"If we were to get that same business up to a similar level as to what we have in the soft citrus and the grapes, we've got an opportunity in the United States, very straightforwardly, to sell eight times as many cherries as we are today," Haines stated.

By his estimation, which the executive still labeled as “rough”, aligning the production and retail sectors could unlock an $800 million market opportunity. He challenged attendees at the Global Cherry Summit and the rest of the Chilean cherry industry to shift more high-quality fruit to the American market, noting that as demand in other global markets like China stabilizes, the US offers a prime environment for expansion.

A three-pronged strategy for importers and retailers

To capture this $800 million prize, Haines proposed a collaborative strategy involving growers, retailers, and consumer-facing marketing bodies. 

For growers, he said, the focus must be on prioritization and technical excellence. Haines called for more consistent grading, improved post-harvest efforts to reduce pitting, and a commitment to ensure the product is promoted at peak freshness. 

He also encouraged growers to share global packaging innovations that could appeal to those "fresh forward" American customers.

“In Kroger, we've really focused on having the loose bags of cherries and also maybe some limited clamshells. We've seen some great-looking packaging in the distribution or the demonstration area up ahead, and some things that we'll bring back,” he said.

On the retail side, Haines argued that companies like Kroger must move beyond conservative growth budgeting. While many retailers budget between one to three percent annual growth per category, Haines suggested that cherries require a much higher bar—potentially doubling or tripling volume in the short term to reach that 8x potential. 

This, he said, requires investing in margin to offer attractive pricing and prioritizing cherries in digital spaces.

The final piece of the puzzle, Haines said, is "re-awakening" the consumer. Because cherries disappear from shelves for months, shoppers often stop looking for them. 

In this regard, the executive suggested that the industry needs to create a US-based tradition for cherries, similar to their association with the Lunar New Year in China. 

“I can imagine having something like that at the Thanksgiving Day parade at Macy's or the Christmas parade or some other very high-profile locations in the United States, just to get customers back in the mood and back thinking about cherries,” Haines said. “I would love to be able to create an event that helps tie cherries fresh in the market with Christmas time.”

By combining better quality, faster logistics, and targeted marketing, Haines is confident that the "best case scenario" for Chilean cherries can become the new US retail standard.

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