FAO Outlook 2026-2035: Three global trends poised to reshape agricultural trade

Amid geopolitical volatility, climate abnormalities, and shifting market dynamics, the outlook for global agriculture seems ever-changing. 

In this context, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), in collaboration with the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), released its Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035. 

The document seeks to spotlight the massive macroeconomic shifts transforming global food markets today, and their impact on the supply chain for the next 10 years.  

Declining populations on one side of the world, rising disposable incomes, and ever-growing health trends are sure to play a role in the reconfiguration of agricultural trade in the next decade. But so are government regulations, slow infrastructural modernization, and shifting priorities from major players. 

Demand in emerging economies will drive growth

The FAO outlook report reveals that global agricultural and fish consumption value will expand by 12.5 percent over the coming decade. 

Strikingly, this growth is driven almost entirely by population growth and rising incomes in middle- and low-income countries. Southeast Asia and India are leading this charge, projected to command a massive 39 percent share of global consumption growth by 2035. 

According to the FAO, this shift will be driven by rapid urbanization and growing purchasing power in these regions. 

This seems like a major market opportunity for fresh fruit and food exporters, but the FAO and OECD are cautious. Infrastructure gaps in this part of the world, including inefficiencies, limited cold-chain storage, and transport bottlenecks, remain severe, making it difficult to access willing markets, let alone retain high-quality standards. 

Unless there’s a considerable influx of resources to strengthen the supply chain in the Global South, they say this could dramatically hinder export opportunities in developing markets. 

“Persistent inefficiencies in food supply chains lead to high food losses and limit the availability of affordable and nutritious food, making productivity growth and well-functioning trade fundamental to prevent sustained increases in food prices,” the report said.

Dietary diversification redefines baskets

The FAO outlook report also forecasts a slow shift away from traditional, resource-intensive staple foods toward higher-value, nutrient-dense products. 

“This transition reflects both improving purchasing power and changing consumer preferences. In contrast, high-income countries are not expected to experience significant dietary shifts in the near term,” the outlook says.

While the authors emphasize a major pivot toward livestock and fish products, this income-driven health and nutrition awareness historically also mirrors a booming appetite for premium fresh produce and diverse dietary options. 

However, projected increases in import dependence for basic food commodities, combined with rapidly expanding urban populations, may further heighten exposure to price volatility, which might be particularly critical in low-income settings. 

If severe climate shocks or supply disruptions drive up international commodity prices, price-sensitive consumers in emerging economies may be forced to abandon their diversified diets and go back to basic, more affordable staple food baskets.

“Strengthening food security in these settings will require greater attention to food affordability, including the role of price dynamics, market integration, and social protection systems,” the authors conclude.

A changing outlook for China 

In a dramatic twist to historical market dynamics, the FAO and OECD no longer position China as an unstoppable engine of global agricultural demand in their 2035 outlook. 

“China’s contribution [to global consumption growth by 2035] is expected to decline sharply to 13 percent, reflecting saturated per-capita food demand and a shrinking population,” reads the document.

Furthermore, strict domestic health regulations (such as the government-mandated Food and

Nutrition Development Guideline that caps added sugars to less than 10 ounces per day), and urban wellness trends are pushing the country toward strict consumption targets. 

*All images are referential. 

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