US citrus final 2026 season forecast is up, showing sector resilience 

The American citrus industry is showing it takes more than a couple of cold snaps to dwindle its numbers. 

In its final projection for the season, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) is forecasting an 11 percent volume increase in oranges, going from 57.2 million boxes in the 2024/25 season to 63.5 million in 2025/26. 

Likewise, tangerines and mandarins are also expected to experience a slight growth spurt, with a volume increase of two percent, reflecting 660,000 more boxes than the 30.8 million registered last season. The government agency also projects two percent growth for the grapefruit category, which should produce an additional 150,000 boxes this season, bringing the grand total to nearly 7.8 million. 

Meanwhile, lemon production in the US will remain stable this season, with volumes revised slightly down at 27.6 million boxes, reflecting a mere two percent decline. 

Florida, the comeback kid

The latest USDA seasonal projection reflects a major win for Florida. The state shows clear signs of bouncing back from an extremely challenging winter marked by unprecedented freeze events that resulted in an estimated $675 million in damages. 

This latest development only compounded an already dramatic downward trend in production, as Florida citrus growers have been battling citrus greening disease (HLB) for nearly 20 years. Fortunately, recent genetic developments have provided light at the end of the tunnel, with the first HLB-resistant orange cultivar recently authorized for planting by the USDA.

And now, following a less-than-auspicious early-season forecast, Florida has even more reason to celebrate, as state production is expected to increase in all citrus categories.

For oranges, the Sunshine State is projected to grow five percent, with an estimated total of nearly 13 million boxes. Meanwhile, Florida grapefruit volumes will be up four percent with close to 1.4 million boxes; tangerines and mandarins will be up 15 percent with 460,000 boxes, and lemon production will climb 34 percent to 900,000 boxes. 

In a statement, industry body Florida Citrus Mutual (FCM) celebrated the projection, labeling it “another encouraging sign of Florida citrus’ continued recovery” after an historic freeze event in early 2026.

“This progress is a testament to the perseverance of our state’s citrus growers, the dedication of researchers, and the commitment of our state and federal leaders for championing this industry and investing in the tools driving its revitalization,” said FCM CEO Matt Joyner.

State-by-state citrus breakdown

Even though Florida is showing signs of a comeback, California continues to spearhead citrus production in the US, with the USDA forecast showing overall stability compared to the 2024/25 season. 

Orange production in the Golden State is set to increase by two percent, reaching nearly 50 million boxes, while grapefruit volumes are expected to remain stable at 4.3 million boxes. Tangerine and mandarin production is also projected to grow by two percent to 31 million boxes. 

Lemons will be the only declining category, although only slightly—Fruit volumes are set to decrease by 1.5 percent, reaching an estimated total of 26 million boxes. 

With a comparatively smaller production, Texas orange crop will jump 28 percent and sit slightly above one million boxes, while grapefruit volumes will grow five percent, bringing the season total to 2.1 million boxes. 

*All images are referential.

See the final USDA Citrus Forecast for the 2025/26 season in full below: 

Related stories

University of Florida breakthrough tree shows HLB tolerance

Opinion | When denial costs millions: The true HLB risk to Latin American citrus

Florida citrus receives nearly $196 million investment from state Legislature