US sweet cherry projections down for 2026
In its latest edition of the Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) is forecasting a total production of 310,500 tons for the domestic sweet cherry market. The estimate is down 17 percent year-over-year, and the agency emphasized it’s the smallest since 2022.
Weather disruptions across the country during key growing moments did a number on the category in 2026, and projections for most cherry-producing states are down. This year’s Washington crop is set to drop 23 percent, while Oregon’s and Michigan’s are expected to decline by 24 percent. The exception, the USDA says, is California, which is projected to finish the year with 63,000 tons.
“[That’s] 24 percent higher than last year’s short crop but small relative to the 2023–24 average of 103,150 tons,” reads the report.
Referential image via Shutterstock.
The Golden State experienced a challenging cherry season this year, with warm temperatures kicking off the season two weeks ahead of time, and unseasonably heavy rain events in April and May that resulted in cracked fruit and crop loss in some orchards.
Meanwhile, Washington, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of total US sweet cherry production, is forecasted to close its season at 200,000 tons, a 30.5 percent decrease from last year’s bumper crop, which also ranks as the state’s largest in eight years.
Considering last year’s results, which put 77 percent of the volume and 91 percent of the value in the fresh cherry market, the USDA projects that the category will allocate 242,000 tons in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year drop of 16 percent.
Graph courtesy of the USDA
Early-season exports and cherry availability are up for 2026
On a more positive note, the USDA reported a slight increase in export value due to a skewed seasonal timeline.
On average, 30 percent of the US cherry market is exported, leaving American shores largely in June and July, when domestic volumes ramp up. This year, however, the USDA is reporting an increase of 43 percent in exports in the early season (April and May), resulting in a three percent year-on-year value bump.
According to the agency, this shift reflects the early start of the California season due to weather disruptions.
Referential image | Archive.
But the good news doesn’t end there, as the USDA reports higher fruit availability for 2025. Last year, Americans could enjoy 481 million pounds of fresh sweet cherries, an 11 percent increase over 2024. The figure translates roughly to 1.4 pounds per person, up from 1.3 pounds in the previous period.
This bump may be due to record imports in 2025, totaling 86 million pounds of fresh cherries entering the country. However, foreign fruit didn’t erode local producers’ market share, as 80 percent of those shipments arrived from counter-seasonal producers in the Southern Hemisphere, mainly Chile and Argentina.
The US remains a net exporter of cherries, with 179.3 million pounds sent abroad, according to the USDA.
*Main image courtesy of Northwest Cherries.
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