Agricola Alex manager Jorge Perez Calderon says while the season is still in its early stages, the effects have already been seen in the southern zones.
“In some states in the south there have been problems with production, such as in Campeche, Oaxaca and Chiapas,” he says.
“Campeche is not a state with a lot of production buy curiously its production has not been normal this year, and there could be a reduction in quantity from this zone of around 50%.
“In fact, right up until the state of Michoacan there has been a trend of a lower crop than last year, but at the same time there are new orchards in the country which will help make up for it.”
He says the strongest plantation growth has occured in the northern state of Sinaloa, but the level of new orchards is a trend throughout the country.
However, when it comes to the existing crop Perez Calderon estimates around 30-40% of orchards are not attended to properly, and this will have ramifications for supply.
“Right now is the stage of flowering, so I am not saying that there have been effects everywhere but that there could be for those orchards that haven’t been attended and fumigated,” he says.
“To put it in another way, the damage could span the whole country but around 60-70% of orchards will be fine as they are attended to, but you’re looking at around 30-40% of them that aren’t serviced well and they will suffer damages; not in their entirety but there will be damages.
“Fortunately flowering has been abundant though and in a way this will help volumes.”
He adds the Ataulfo variety has been particularly hit by the rain during this period of nationwide cloud cover, with significant incidences of spots and rotting of the fruit.
He labels many of the rain effects as “latent” and the industry will still have to wait for the final outcome.
The expectation comes at a time when Peru too is forecasting lower volumes due to recent weather damages.