Grapes in Charts: Will lower volumes be enough to bring market back to "normal"?

August 20 , 2019

In this installment of the ‘In Charts' series, Colin Fain of Agronometrics illustrates how the U.S. market is evolving. Each week the series looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic visualizing the market factors that are driving change.

In the last couple of weeks, the U.S. grape market has jumped up considerably from its lowest points which were around week 27 - coincidentally the week our last Grapes in Charts article was published. As we continue to track the commodity through the shift from Mexico to California, we can appreciate how the trend is close to the pricing we were seeing last year.


Historic U.S. market grape prices per case

(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)

[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]


The fact that prices jumped up are not a surprise to many industry observers; volumes more than justify what we are seeing.


Historic U.S. market grape volumes

(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)

[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]


California previously said it is expecting less volume - a promise it has so far delivered on. As the season evolves, it will be interesting to see how far off of last year's bumper crop California will end up sending and conversely how the prices will react to it.

If volumes end up being too close to last year, the pricing situation could a difficult one. If volumes are closer to 2017-18, pricing should return to normal levels for the rest of the season. However, this scenario would require a much more dramatic drop in volume than the industry has so far predicted; it would have to be in the neighborhood of 15% lower than last year's volume.


Historic U.S. market California grape volumes

(Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics)

[Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here]


In our ‘In Charts’ series, we work to tell some of the stories that are moving the industry. Feel free to take a look at the other articles by clicking here.

You can keep track of the markets daily through Agronometrics, a data visualization tool built to help the industry make sense of the huge amounts of data that professionals need to access to make informed decisions. If you found the information and the charts from this article useful, feel free to visit us at www.agronometrics.com where you can easily access these same graphs, or explore the other 20 fruits we currently track.

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