Global citrus forecast released by USDA showing mixed estimates

Global orange and soft citrus production to rise in 2021, with lemons and limes set to fall

Global orange and soft citrus production to rise in 2021, with lemons and limes set to fall

Global production of oranges and soft citrusis set to rise slightly through 2021 while lemons are expected to see a decline, according to a USDA report.

The biannual Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) report said orange production is forecast to rise by 7 percent to 49.4 million metric tons (MT), as favorable weather leads to larger crops in Brazil and Mexico, offsetting declines in Turkey and the U.S.

Orange production in the EU Egypt are also forecast to rise in the 2020-21 season, which a small uptick is also expected in South Africa in 2021.

Global production for tangerines and mandarins is forecast up slightly to 33.1 million MT with larger supplies in China, the EU, Morocco, Turkey and the U.S.

Lemons and limes are the only citrus category forecast to see a decline, according to the report. Volumes are set to fall slightly to 8.3 million MT as lower production in
Argentina and the U.S. more than offsets gains in the European Union and Mexico.

But global exports are forecast up with less fruit being used for processing.

Grapefruit production is set to rise slightly to a record 6.9 million MT due to favorable weather and expanded area in China and Mexico. The EU, U.S. and South Africa are al also expecting increases.

Oranges

In oranges, Mexico production is forecast to rebound by more than half to 4.0 million tons after drought decimated last year’s crop.

But U.S. production is foercast to fall 13 percent to 4.1 million tons with production in Florida forecast to drop 20 percent due to above-average droppage. The drop will likely lead to greater imports into the U.S.

EU production is forecast up 6 percent to 6.6 million tons due to favorable weather and an increase in area harvested as new orchards in Italy begin production.

South Africa production is expected to rise 3 percent to 1.7 million tons due to expected normal weather conditions, an increase in area harvested with new plantings of high yielding and late-maturing varieties, and improved water management.

Egypt production is forecast to rise 200,000 MT to 3.4 million tons due to an increase in area harvested and due to favorable weather during flowing and fruit set.

Soft citrus

For tangerines and mandarins, EU production is expected up 10 percent to 3.1 million MT due to favorable weather.

Turkey and Morocco are both expecting big increases of 25 percent and 30 percent respectively to reach 1.8 million MT and 1.2 million MT. No information was provided on South Africa.

U.S. production is forecast up 5 percent to 882,000 MT due to a larger crop in California. Record imports are also expected this year.

Lemons and limes

For lemons and limes, Mexico production is forecast to expand 6 percent to 2.9 million MT on favorable weather, while U.S. production is forecast down 6 percent to 940,000 MT on a smaller crop in California.

Argentina production is forecast to drop sharply by 30 percent to 1.0 million MT due to unfavorable weather.

EU production is forecast up 11 percent to 1.6 million MT as a result of favorable weather and greater harvested area, while Turkey production is forecast to rise 5 percent to 1.0 million MT.

South Africa production is forecast to climb 2 percent to a record 670,000 MT as a result of favorable weather and higher area. Improved supplies are expected to lead to record exports for the fifth year in a row.