In this installment of the ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ series, Sarah Ilyas studies the state of the Mexican avocado industry. Each week the series looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic visualizing the market factors that are driving change.

Rabobank recently released its World Avocado Trade Map, which depicts global avocado production, consumption, and trade. According to the report, Mexico retains its position as the leading avocado exporting nation, while the United States is the leading importer of the fruit. 

Moreover, the report highlights that Mexico, which currently contributes to 30% of the worldwide avocado output, experienced an increment of about 6% in production during the past decade.

Notably, as a result of Mexico's year-round production, the avocado output reaches a seasonal low point in June and July. This decline in supply coincides with the peak production periods of the United States (California) and Peru, ensuring a consistent avocado supply to the US market.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

“With exports increasing at an average annual growth rate of around 8 per cent over the past decade, Mexico reaffirmed its place as the largest avocado-exporting country in the world, surpassing 1m metric tons in 2022,” said Van Rijswick.

Rabobank confirmed that the leading market for avocados is the United States, where the versatility of the fruit and promotional campaigns have boosted demand in both retail and foodservice channels. The report further elucidates that the US remains the largest importing market globally, with a growth of approximately 8% in imports between 2012 and 2022. 

Mexico, the world's largest exporter, is accountable for 40% of the overall avocado production. However, according to the projections of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), this percentage may escalate to 63% by 2030. The United States absorbs 80% of Mexican avocado exports, but production continues to ramp up in many other countries.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Avocados from Jalisco complement the inflow from Michoacan (the main producing region), because the season in Michoacan starts in July, and usually, between May and July, there is not enough volume from Mexico to supply the U.S. market. Therefore, the new exporting region intends to fill up that gap so that Mexican avocados are consumed in the U.S. year-round. According to the Association of Avocado Producers of Jalisco, by July 2023, between 80,000 to 100,000 tons of avocados are expected to be exported to the US from Jalisco alone.

The report also visualizes the evolution of shipping point prices for avocados in the US. Prices for Mexican avocados reached their pinnacle in 2022, at $80.02 per package. Week 18 this year saw pricing at $29.76 per package, a 53% drop compared to 2022.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

In February, the government of Michoacán reached an agreement with the American Union to engage in further collaborative efforts aimed at fortifying the avocado sector within the ambit of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (T-MEC). The governor of the state, Alfredo Ramírez Bedolla, announced that he conducted a meeting with the United States Ambassador to Mexico, Ken Salazar, during which they deliberated on the progress made in enhancing business productivity and implementing sustainable agricultural practices in regions that are primarily associated with avocado production.

The "Green Agenda" of the Mexican avocado industry is in sync with the United Nations' 2030 Agenda, representing a significant stride towards environmentally sustainable practices. The industry has taken concrete steps to curtail its ecological impact by adopting measures such as utilizing only plant and flower-friendly agrochemicals and limiting their application to hours when bees and other pollinators aren’t active. Furthermore, around 61% of the avocado orchards in Michoacán rely on rainfall and natural seasonal irrigation, whereas another 36% employ sustainable, advanced irrigation systems, including drip irrigation and micro-sprinkling.

Together, these practices signify that up to 97% of avocado orchards in the region are primarily reliant on sustainable irrigation methods. This emphasizes the industry's steadfast commitment to preserving the environment while sustaining its business activities.

In our ‘In Charts’ series, we work to tell some of the stories that are moving the industry. Feel free to take a look at the other articles by clicking here.

All pricing for domestic US produce represents the spot market at Shipping Point (i.e. packing house/climate controlled warehouse, etc.). For imported fruit, the pricing data represents the spot market at Port of Entry.

You can keep track of the markets daily through Agronometrics, a data visualization tool built to help the industry make sense of the huge amounts of data that professionals need to access to make informed decisions. If you found the information and the charts from this article useful, feel free to visit us at www.agronometrics.com where you can easily access these same graphs, or explore the other 21 commodities we currently track.